Christmas dinner set to cost less at the supermarket this year

Falling turkey and Brussels sprout prices mean Christmas dinner will cost a little less at the supermarket checkout this year.

The price of Brussels sprouts has fallen by 12%, while a 10lb (4.55kg) frozen turkey will cost you £1.21 less than it did last year, research for the BBC suggests.

But digging deeper we discovered root vegetables have gone up in price this year, after wet weather delayed the planting season.

When all the trimmings are totted up, a family Christmas is set to cost £31.66 in 2024, down from last year’s figure of £32.18. It reflects food prices rising at a slower rate in the past year, as UK inflation has eased.

The annual change in price for products across Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, Aldi and Lidl were measured by Retail tracking platform Assosia.

The crown of the Christmas feast, the turkey, has fallen in price by 6% this year, according to this data.

Tom Copas, managing director of Copas Turkeys in Cookham, Berkshire, said the price of turkeys had begun to stabilise after a couple of “incredibly turbulent” years that had pushed up the cost of rearing his birds.

“Hence we’re seeing incremental changes in prices year on year, rather than dramatic ones,” added Mr Copas, whose family has been rearing turkeys since 1957.

However, Mr Copas says he’d seen slower sales and more demand for smaller turkeys this year, perhaps indicating customers were tightening their belts.

“It’s possibly people are trying to keep the overall basket spend down.”

Brussels sprouts came in at 12p cheaper for a 500g bag compared to last year.

Hot summers and sudden cold snaps of the previous two years had made things hard for producers, says John Inglis, senior commercial manager at ESG Drysdale, one of the UK’s largest sprout producers.

But he says this year has seen us return “back to normality” after “a couple of tricky seasons” and sprouts are thriving again.

Root vegetables were behind the largest price changes in our Christmas shop.

Maris Piper potatoes have seen a whopping 26% increase, with a typical 2kg bag up from £1.58 to £1.99.

Tracy Bush, co-director of Provenance Potatoes in Kent, says poor weather has had a lot to do with the price of spuds going up in recent years.

“We’ve had a particularly wet spring so planting was difficult for any root crops, and then the autumn when crops are lifted and harvested, that was also very difficult,” she says.

Carrot farmer Rodger Hobson says the same wet weather delayed this year’s carrot planting season. Last year, the weather was so bad that supermarkets had to import carrots. This year, they’ve gone up by 13.4% to 69p per kilo.

But Mr Hobson says he would not be surprised if “when it comes to Christmas week they’ll be down to 20p a kilo”.

This is because carrots are often chosen as “loss leaders” in supermarkets. They’re sold at a loss to attract customers in to spend on more profitable items.

Ged Futter is a retail specialist who used to be a buyer for Asda. He says supermarkets drastically reduce their prices in the week before Christmas.

“Every year they do the same thing,” he says, noting that supermarkets usually fight for customers with cut price “potatoes, carrots, parsnips, Brussels spouts”.

Mr Hobson says perishable items make for good loss leaders because customers can’t stockpile them when they are cheap. If supermarkets reduced the price of long-life items like baked beans, shoppers might be tempted to buy their year’s supply in December, he says.

While loss-leaders are good for shoppers, Mr Futter stressed these below-cost prices “don’t show the true cost to the farmer” and can generate a lot of food waste.

“People think that food is cheap to produce – that’s not true.”

This year price rises were not confined to the main meal – the cost of Christmas desserts also went up.

Christmas pudding is 11% more expensive than in 2023, and mince pies are up by 5%, according to Assosia’s research.

Jessica White, the owner of Meg Rivers artisan bakery, says: “Our costs have indeed gone up of ingredients, packaging, wages and like everyone – electricity.” But she says her company had chosen not to put prices up this year.

They have already sold out of Christmas puddings and have had to make more to fulfil the waiting list, she says. “We make more and more each year and don’t notice a drop in demand.”

BBC News also looked into how the cost of a Christmas dinner might vary depending on where you shop.

We compared prices on the websites of the UK’s top five supermarkets – Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons and Aldi.

Our snapshot from one day suggests Aldi was the cheapest supermarket for a basic list of Christmas essentials, at around £24.30.

Asda was second cheapest at £28.22, followed by Morrisons and Sainsbury’s.

Tesco was most expensive at £36.51. Last year, our research suggested Morrisons was the most expensive, with Tesco third.

While we tried to find equivalent items across all five supermarkets, there are some small differences in product sizes or types. So the cost of your Christmas dinner might vary between supermarkets and the items you choose.

Prices will also vary the closer we get to Christmas as supermarket competition becomes even more fierce.

Our BBC analysis should not be directly compared with the price rise figures from retail analysis firm Assosia as we both use a slightly different basket.

Start with a budget: Plan ahead and add up hidden expenses, like tin foil for roasting a turkey.

• Write a food list: Decide on your must haves and what you might not miss.
• Bargain hunt: Look out for online offers as well as yellow sticker items which have been reduced.
• Use your freezer: Christmas foods that freeze well include butter, meat joints and some cheeses like cheddar.
• Join up with friends and family: This means you can buy bigger pack sizes, which are often better value.

Read more from the BBC Food team here