There are some series you feel like are over before they even begin. I am not sure that it always works out, but there are some times when it does. This feels like a series that is more of a formality than anything.
The Guardians and the Rays are playing in the American League Championship Series, and this just feels like the Guardians will be significantly overmatched.
The Guardians have won three straight games, and that’s how they got into this series in the first place. They lost two games in a row to the White Sox, then they found a way to break the bats out in Games 3 and 4 in Chicago. That forced a Game 5 back in Cleveland, where their pitching was lights out and the hitting did just enough for them to secure a victory. It just feels like they aren’t nearly as good of a team as the Rays.
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Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan and Chase DeLauter of the Cleveland Guardians celebrate after scoring on an RBI triple by Jo Adell during the third inning of Game 3 of the American League Division Series against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on Oct. 7, 2026, in Chicago, Illinois. (Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)
Monday night, they are sending out Foster Griffin to the mound. I would like to go on the record to say I thought Griffin should’ve been given a start in the Chicago series. For whatever reason, he wasn’t.
He only pitched in Game 3 and allowed one earned run over 2.2 innings and struck out seven hitters. Griffin did not start that game. He is now on full rest facing the Rays to open the series. He did not face the Rays at all this season, but has faced two Rays hitters in his career, striking out Jonathan Aranda and walking Taylor Walls.
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The Tampa Bay Rays were the best team in the American League this season, and they looked like it in the Division Series against the Yankees. When they needed to stifle the Yankees’ bats, they did. When they needed a big hit, they got it. They took advantage of the defensive miscues and swept away New York. Game 2 was where the Rays found the way to make it work against a lot of questionable plays from New York. They got a major hit in Game 3.
Members of the Tampa Bay Rays pose for a photo after their victory against the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City on Oct. 7, 2026. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
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In Game 1, it wasn’t either of those things; it was a masterpiece thrown by tonight’s starter, Drew Rasmussen. How good was his first game? He went eight innings, walked two hitters, allowed one hit, and struck out 10 hitters without allowing a run. His season was fantastic, ending with a 16-5 record, 2.67 ERA, and a 0.91 WHIP. He faced the Guardians twice this season. On the road, he went five innings and allowed two earned runs on six hits. At home, he allowed one hit and one walk over seven scoreless frames.
Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays grounds out to the pitcher during the first inning of the MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pa., on July 14, 2026. (Al Bello/Getty Images)
Not only in this series, but in this game, I think the Guardians have no chance. Sure, there could be the rest vs. rust factor. There could be a game here from the Rays where they just can’t get a hit. However, Rasmussen is a true Ace and gives the Rays a major advantage. Griffin could be a very good starter and give the Guardians a chance. I just don’t see it here. Give me the Rays on the run line.
The moneyline is too juicy for me to take and I think Tampa will win by two or more.
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