The region goes to vote after a decade

On a bright September afternoon, a caravan of colourful cars, festooned with flags, arrives at a village in Indian-administered Kashmir for an election rally.

Iltija Mufti, a politician from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), slowly rises from the sunroof of one of the cars.

“Yeli ye Mufti (When Mufti will be in power),” she shouts at a crowd that has gathered to hear the third-generation leader of one of the most influential political dynasties of the region.

“Teli Tch’le Sakhti (Then the repression will end),” they respond in unison.

From a distance, army personnel in bulletproof jackets, armed with automatic rifles, stand watch, tracking every movement.

For the first time in a decade, elections are being held in 47 assembly seats of Kashmir, long marked by violence and unrest. The region, claimed by both India and Pakistan, has been the cause of three wars between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Since the 1990s, an armed insurgency against Indian rule has claimed thousands of lives, including civilians and security forces.

The three-phase polls will also extend to the 43 seats in the neighbouring Hindu-majority Jammu region.

The election is the first since 2019, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy, stripped its statehood, and split it into two federally-administered territories. Since then, the region has been governed by a federal administrator.

In the fray are 13 main parties vying for a majority in the 90-seat assembly.

The major players are the two main regional parties – the PDP led by Mehbooba Mufti and the National Conference (NC) which is headed by Omar Abdullah. Both Mufti and Abdullah are former chief ministers of the region.

The NC has formed an alliance with India’s main opposition party Congress.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also contesting but not many are betting on the party, which has a stronghold in Jammu but a weak political base in the valley.

In the last elections in 2014, the BJP had formed a government in alliance with PDP after sweeping Jammu. The alliance fell apart in 2018 after years of disagreements.

Also in the picture, this time, is Engineer Rashid – a controversial politician who has spent five years in jail accused in a terror case and was released on bail this week. Rashid came to limelight earlier this year when he pulled off a stunning victory in the general election over Abdullah. He fought the election from jail, with his sons leading an emotional campaign on the ground.

Elections in Kashmir have long been contentious, with residents and separatist leaders often boycotting them, viewing the process as Delhi’s attempt to legitimise its control.

Since 1947, Kashmir has held 12 elections, but voter turnout has often been low and marked by violence. Militants have attacked polling stations, and security forces have been accused of forcing voters to come out and vote. Since the 1990s, hundreds of political workers have been kidnapped or killed by militant groups.

But for the first time in decades, even separatist leaders are contesting in several seats.

The most keenly watched of these is the outlawed Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) party, which has joined hands with Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).

Residents will vote to elect a local assembly, led by a chief minister and council of ministers. Though the assembly will have limited powers under Delhi’s rule, it has sparked hopes for a political change in the valley.

Almost all opposition parties have pledged to restore statehood and the region’s special status. The BJP has ruled out restoring autonomy but has promised to reinstate statehood to Jammu and Kashmir “at an appropriate time after the elections”.

Most residents appeared to be reconciled to the loss of their region’s autonomy.

“I don’t think Article 370 will come back unless any miracle happens,” said Suheel Mir, a research scholar, adding that parties were making promises about restoring autonomy in a “politically charged” atmosphere to get votes.

Several young men and women said they were more concerned about issues like political instability, corruption and most of all, unemployment – also a major concern in Jammu.

“We want to cast our vote to resolve our day-to-day issues. It has nothing to do with the Kashmir dispute,” said a man who did not wish to be named.

But others said they didn’t want to give the impression that they had accepted the events of 2019 and would participate in the election solely to vote against the BJP.

“We want to send a message to the government that the revocation is unacceptable to us no matter what,” said 38-year-old Zameer Ahmad.

Five years ago when Modi’s government abrogated Article 370, the 70-year-old constitutional provision that gave the region its autonomy, the government said it was necessary to restore normalcy in India’s only Muslim-majority region.

The move triggered a severe security clampdown, mass detentions, curfews and a months-long internet blackout, stripping residents of rights to jobs and land.

Since then, Modi and his ministers have extensively talked about a new era of peace and development in Kashmir, announcing projects worth hundreds of millions of dollars that they say are part of a plan to integrate the region’s economy with the rest of India. (Until Jammu and Kashmir’s special status was removed, outsiders could not buy land to do business there).

But locals say they have yet to see the benefits of such projects and continue to struggle with violence and high levels of unemployment.

Thousands of Indian army troops continue to be perpetually deployed there, with powers that have led to decades of allegations of human rights violations.

“There is an absence of democracy and freedoms in Kashmir and many political activists remain in jail,” said political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba.

“The election allows people to give their verdict for or against these changes.”

The change in mood is visible everywhere.

Across Jammu and Kashmir, streets are adorned with posters, party flags, and billboards and men at local bakeries freely discuss election outcomes over chai.

“There has been a complete overhaul of traditional political narratives,” said Tooba Punjabi, a researcher.

“Earlier, public boycotts defined elections. But now, it’s a means of putting the right party in place to undo damage.”

The shift in political attitudes was also evident earlier this year, when Kashmir registered a historic 58.46% voter turnout in the parliamentary election.

Many residents are now pinning their hopes on regional parties to raise their demands.

“These parties have acted as a shield between Delhi and Kashmir,” said businessman Tahir Hussain,” adding that “it didn’t matter who will form the government as long as it’s a local one”.

Analysts say the BJP’s performance could also receive a significant blow in Jammu this time, where internal discord and infighting has derailed its ambitions.

There’s also growing anger among the residents who are unhappy with the party’s policies.

Until now, the BJP’s push for development has resonated with people in Jammu who hope it would bring in more economic opportunities for them.

But many say they are yet to see any signs of change. “In fact, now that Article 370 has been scrapped, people from other states are coming to Jammu. Our rights on jobs and land are being taken away from us,” said Gulchain Singh Charak, a local politician.

Sunil Sethi, BJP’s chief spokesperson in the region, rejected the allegations.

“We have done massive infrastructure developments, build roads and brought foreign investors here,” he said.