Astros bullpen ERA of 4.11 could be the deciding factor as Tampa Bay Rays protect their postseason lead
I had a disastrous start to the NCAA College Football season, but the NFL has given us two solid victories. I hit a first touchdown scorer play yesterday as well, but of course, I didn’t add it to the article. Today we still have football, but it is college football, and to be honest, I’m not overly interested in those games. Instead, I’m going to stick with baseball, which has funded a lot of my football bets this season and in previous years. We are nearing just two weeks remaining in the season, and teams still have a lot to play for, including the Astros and Rays.
Believe it or not, the Houston Astros are still one of the better teams in the league. It seems almost impossible that the Astros could be winning games, considering they’ve traded away or let so many guys walk in free agency. They have had issues with injuries, and their pitching staff is one of the least exciting in baseball. They’ve tried with a variety of guys, but with a team ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.35, there isn’t much to be excited about when it comes to their rotation.
Houston Astros’ Yordan Alvarez celebrates in the dugout after hitting a two-run home run during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals in Kansas City, Mo., on June 12, 2026. (Charlie Riedel/AP)
They did call up Miguel Ullola, who takes the ball today for the Astros. He is really more of a reliever than a starter. His last appearance was on Sunday, and he threw one inning, allowing one hit and a strikeout against the Diamondbacks. I’m not quite sure how deep into this game he will go, but he’s never pitched more than two innings in a stint in his career, so my guess is that it won’t be overly deep. Collectively, the Astros have the 17th-ranked bullpen in baseball with an ERA of 4.11.
The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the best teams in baseball and have a solid chance to win 95+ games this season. They are currently in control of their own destiny and have a three-game lead over the New York Yankees. The question about this team is mostly about how they will perform in the postseason, not if they are going to make it. There is still some question about the Astros getting into the postseason, for comparison. This series also holds a little bit more excitement as the leading MVP candidates take each other on. Junior Caminero and Yordan Alvarez are jockeying for the award and have fairly similar statistics.
Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays grounds out to the pitcher during the first inning of the MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pa., on July 14, 2026. (Al Bello/Getty Images)
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One guy who has been having a great season but doesn’t seem to be getting any Cy Young buzz is tonight’s starter, Drew Rasmussen. For the season, Rasmussen is 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Rasmussen’s WHIP is sitting at third in the Majors, and his ERA is 12th. He’s a great option to be a front-of-the-rotation starter for the Rays when they start the playoffs. He has been solid at home this season with a 3.22 home ERA. It is worth noting that his worst starts this season did come at home, though. Astros hitters have done well against him in the past, hitting .307 over 75 at-bats.
Tampa Bay Rays’ Jorge Mateo celebrates his walk-off hit against San Diego Padres pitcher David Morgan during the 11th inning of a baseball game Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
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One of Rasmussen’s worst starts did come against the Astros, on the road, allowing five earned runs over five innings. Maybe it was something with his mechanics, as he allowed six in the next start to the Yankees. That’s 11 earned runs in two games when he has allowed 38 over his other 25 starts. However, the Astros have hit him very well. I feel like the Astros could be live dogs on that one, but I think the over 7.5 makes more sense. The Astros bullpen isn’t reliable, and if you’re betting against Rasmussen with any team, the Astros seem like a good one.
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