Raiders favored at -3 over Miami Dolphins as Malik Willis and Kirk Cousins face off in NFL week one

I wish I had an opening line that was memorable like Scott Hanson over on Red Zone. There isn’t anything I can write that will provide the same level of excitement that “7 hours of commercial-free football” gives. That’s what is on the horizon for us, though. We have hours of uninterrupted football, and our first full schedule. My first play of the weekend comes as the Dolphins take on the Raiders.

The Miami Dolphins are my pick to earn something really special this year… the #1 overall draft pick. That’s not exactly a good sign, but I do think they will be the worst team in football. The Dolphins team has been decimated over the course of the past year. Their coach from last season: gone. Their starting quarterback from last season: gone. Their top wide receivers (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle): gone and gone.

Is there any hope for optimism in this game? De’Von Achane is still one of the better running backs in the game. Malik Willis is dynamic and has shown flashes of success in both Tennessee and Green Bay. At the same time, Achane might not have any running space considering the teams know he is the best and only true threat on the team. Willis has shown flashes, but he has also shown that he is normally a backup quarterback for a reason.

MIAMI DOLPHINS ENTER FULL REBUILD WITH MALIK WILLIS AT QUARTERBACK AND JEFF HAFLEY AS HEAD COACH

The Las Vegas Raiders also underwent many changes this offseason. They earned the #1 overall pick last year with a terrible season of their own. That saw them dismiss Pete Carroll and bring in Klint Kubiak to take over the franchise. It also saw them select Fernando Mendoza with the first pick, and then they also grabbed Kirk Cousins, who worked with Kubiak previously.

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins warms up before an NFL preseason game against the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

The Raiders tried to trade away Maxx Crosby in the offseason, but that was vetoed, and he is now back on the roster. He should still be solid for the club, but there are questions around the rest of the defense. Their new coach is also not a defensive guy, so there is reason to be concerned about this side of the ball. For some context, the Raiders are ranked 24th in the league for defensive line rankings. The Dolphins are 30th. Brock Bowers is out for the game, and that hurts the Raiders, but I think it will be okay against the Dolphins.

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We have two quarterbacks in new spots, and questionable defenses. Does that mean we will get a high-scoring game, or will the quarterbacks be too busy trying to figure things out? Personally, I think we get the higher-scoring game, but I’m not touching the total. I don’t think there is enough on one side or the other to really invest in it. I do lean toward the over 40.5, though.

Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) looks on from the sideline during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Allegiant Stadium. (Kiyoshi Mio/Imagn Images)

Instead, I’m backing the Raiders at -3 in this one. Las Vegas is one of the teams that I think will improve, but let’s not believe that they will win a ton of games. They are still going to miss the playoffs. There are still a lot of questions. But for one game, the Raiders should win the game by at least three points, and I think they should win by five or more. Back the Raiders.

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