It’s something that any nervous traveller dreads during a long-haul flight.
But severe turbulence is set to get even worse – with climate change to blame.
That’s according to Professor Lance M Leslie and Milton Speer from the University of Technology Sydney, who have discovered a link between ‘freak wind gusts’ and global warming.
Using machine learning techniques, the pair found that heat and moisture are ‘key ingredients’ for dangerous wind gusts known as ‘downbursts.’
Downbursts can wreak havoc during takeoff and landing, causing planes to dangerously gain or lose altitude.
Based on their findings, the scientists are calling for air safety authorities and airlines to be ‘more vigilant during takeoff and landing in a warming world.’
‘Our research is among the first to detail the heightened climate risk to airlines from thunderstorm microbursts, especially during takeoff and landing,’ they explained in an article for The Conversation.
‘Airlines and air safety authorities should anticipate more strong microbursts.’
It’s something that any nervous traveller dreads during a long-haul flight. But severe turbulence is set to get even worse – with climate change to blame (stock image)
The weather radar system on a 737 jet plane can detect a microburst just before it causes heavy turbulence
Flying has long been recognised as a safe mode of travel, with an accident rate of just 1.13 per one million flights.
However, in recent months, there have been several reports of planes experiencing extreme turbulence.
In March, five passengers were injured by extreme turbulence that forced a United Express flight to make an emergency landing in Texas.
Then in June, nine people were injured after a Ryanair flight was hit by severe turbulence, with crew and passengers left in tears and the plane forced to make an emergency landing.
Until now, most studies on turbulence have focused on dangers at high-altitude, such as clear air turbulence, and jet stream instability.
In contrast, there has been less research on the dangers of turbulence caused by downbursts at lower altitudes.
In their new study, publihsed in the journal Climate, the researchers turned to machine learning to identify the climate drivers behind these downbursts.
Their results revealed that increased heat and moisture ‘spell trouble for planes’.
Flying has long been recognised as a safe mode of travel, with an accident rate of just 1.13 per one million flights. However, in recent months, there have been several reports of planes experiencing extreme turbulence
‘Global warming increases the amount of water vapour in the lower atmosphere,’ they explained.
‘That’s because 1°C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold 7% more water vapour.
‘The extra moisture typically comes from adjacent warmer seas. It evaporates from the surface of the ocean and feeds clouds.
‘Increased heat and water vapour fuels stronger thunderstorms.’
The main problem with thunderstorms for planes is the risk of hazardous, rapid changes in wind strength and direction at low altitudes, according to the experts.
In particular, small downbursts measuring just a few kilometres wide – dubbed ‘microbursts’ – can cause abrupt changes in wind speed and direction.
For unlucky passengers, this results in turbulence that ‘suddenly moves the plane in all directions.’
Somewhat unsurprisingly, smaller planes are particularly susceptible to this type of low-altitude turbulence.
‘Small planes with 4–50 passenger seats are more vulnerable to the strong, even extreme, wind gusts spawned by thunderstorm microbursts,’ the experts added.
Worryingly, as temperatures aroung the globe continue to rise, microbursts are only going to get worse.
‘A warming climate increases low- to mid-level troposphere water vapor, typically transported from high sea-surface temperature regions,’ the pair added in their study.
‘Consequently, the future occurrence and intensity of destructive wind gusts from wet microburst thunderstorms are expected to increase.’
