Democrats running in California’s six fiercely competitive congressional districts, seats that may determine the balance of power in Washington, are aligning themselves with their Republican rivals in support of a tough-on-crime ballot measure that voters will decide in the November election.
That unity indicates the political vulnerability Democratic candidates may face over the issue of crime, particularly in tight races. Recent polls show broad voter support for the initiative, Proposition 36, which would impose stricter penalties for retail theft and crimes involving fentanyl.
At stake are a half-dozen congressional seats in Orange County, the Inland Empire and the Antelope and San Joaquin valleys, regions of California that are neither far-left nor far-right. The races are among a handful across the U.S. that both parties see as pivotal in determining control of Congress.
The Democratic candidates have the perilous task of responding to voter concerns over drug addiction, organized retail theft and homelessness — without alienating their liberal and left-of-center base of support.
“I would think that a Republican opponent would love it if a Democratic candidate opposed Prop. 36 because it would make it very easy for them to paint them as soft on crime,” said Jared Sichel, a strategist for Republican, conservative and independent candidates based in Orange County. “If you are a Democrat that is opposed to Prop. 36, that will hurt you in November.”
Sichel suggested that most of these swing races are outside big cities and cover swaths of Orange County and the Central Valley, where you have a “healthy mix of Republicans and Democrats” who “don’t want to live in disorder.”
“Most residents in other counties in California would like their law enforcement and government stance towards crime to resemble more Orange County, than San Francisco or Los Angeles,” he said.
Overall, property crimes are on the decline in California. Those crimes have decreased in 46 counties and increased in six of the 15 largest counties, including Orange County, which saw as little as a 1% increase in 2023. Alameda County saw the largest increase, at 28%. In 2023, 6,850 people died from ingesting the lethal drug fentanyl, an extremely potent opioid that has exponentially plagued the state since 2019.
The debate over Proposition 36 has fractured California Democrats, with Gov. Gavin Newsom and top Democratic state lawmakers strongly opposing the November ballot measure and the Democratic mayors of San Diego, San Francisco and San José among those supporting it.
Proposition 36 aims to retool parts of Proposition 47, a measure voters overwhelmingly passed in 2014 on the promise to relieve California’s overcrowded prisons by reclassifying some non-violent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors. It would also mandate drug treatment as an option — as opposed to jail time — for those who commit certain drug offenses. Opponents call the measure costly and say there are already tools that law enforcement and prosecutors can use and that the drug treatment component is largely unfunded, which will result in most people opting for jail time instead of treatment. Supporters say that it will put California into an era of mass treatment and crackdown on repeat offenders.
In California’s 13th Congressional District in the Central Valley, where issues around agriculture and public safety are key concerns, Democrat Adam Gray is running against Republican incumbent Rep. John Duarte and has expressed his support for Proposition 36. Gray is running in the highly watched swing district after being defeated by Duarte in 2022, despite Democrats having a strong voter registration advantage.
Gray told The Times he thinks the measure will “restore accountability for repeat offenders” and provide law enforcement the tools to enforce that.
In another battleground race in the Inland Empire’s 41st Congressional District, Democratic hopeful Will Rollins is running for a second time against Rep. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation.
Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, told The Times he supports Proposition 36 but urged that there need to be more representatives in Congress who support federal law enforcement at the southern border, to stop the flow of fentanyl.
A Public Policy Institute of California poll published in late September found that 71% of likely California voters said they would vote in favor of Proposition 36.
Support was even stronger in San Diego and Orange counties, where 74% of voters would vote for the measure. That same survey found that 44% of registered voters in California’s 10 most competitive congressional districts said that the outcome of Proposition 36 is “very important.”
In the San Joaquin Valley, part of the Central Valley, 82% of voters support Proposition 36, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by The Times.
“The congressional candidates can’t avoid talking about Prop. 36,” said Mark Baldassare, the lead pollster from PPIC. “It’s what people say they’re most interested in.”
Michael Wagaman, a Democratic consultant, said it’s unsurprising for candidates to respond to voters’ fears over drug and property crimes. Along with Republicans hammering Democrats on the crime issue this election, including former President Trump in his bid to return to the White House, voters can see the impact when they see items on locked-up shelves in drug and grocery stores.
“Constituents obviously have concerns about things like razor blades locked up behind plexiglass and fentanyl found in school backpacks,” Wagaman said. “So people running for office are aware of those concerns and responding to those is not a surprise.”
In California’s 47th Congressional District, which includes Irvine, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach and Huntington Beach, state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) and Republican Scott Baugh are vying for an open seat. The seat is vacant after Rep. Katie Porter unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Senate.
Baugh has blasted Min for his record on public safety issues. He ridiculed Min on X for “[supporting] reducing penalties for theft, leaving to rampant smash and grabs in our malls.” In recent months conservative political action committees have spent $7.5 million opposing Min. Roughly $4.4 million has been spent in opposition to Baugh.
Despite this, Min has campaigned as a moderate Democrat on public safety issues, branching off from his Democratic colleagues in Sacramento by supporting Proposition 36.
In other key districts:
- Derek Tran, who is running against Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in California’s 45th Congressional District in northern Orange County, said as the co-owner of a small business that has been broken into “several times” in the last year, he stands for “common-sense reform like Prop. 36.”
- Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd Congressional District, who is running against Republic incumbent Rep. David Valadao, and George Whitesides, who is running against incumbent Mike Garcia in the 27th Congressional District, also support the measure.
- Joe Kerr, a Democrat and retired fire captain, who taking his chances running against Young Kim in Orange County in California’s 40th Congressional District, where there still remains a Republican voter registration advantage of 3.7 percentage points, has also chosen to support the measure.
“This may be a case where if candidates have the same position [on some issues] it can allow voters to focus on other issues where there are stark differences on policy,” Wagaman said. “There’s only so much time in a campaign and to capture voters’ attention.”
Times staff writer Hannah Fry contributed to this story.
