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The Liberals managed a stunning comeback to win an election – dogged by Trump’s threats – which was heavily in favour of the Conservatives a few months ago.
Canada Election Results 2025: Mark Carney celebrating with his supporters. (Reuters)
Canada Election Results 2025: The Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, secured a historic victory over the Conservatives, overcoming its battles with widespread popularity a few months ago accompanied by threats posed by US President Donald Trump.
As per the latest CBC projections, the Liberal Party has won 153 seats and is leading in 15 others (168), while the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, won 133 seats and are leading in 11 (141). It remains to be seen if the Liberals could win a majority government, although all signs indicate that they would fall short of the 172-mark.
As the year began, the Liberals looked set for a historic election defeat, with the Conservatives holding a 20-point lead in opinion polls. However, the political landscape in Canada was significantly influenced by US President Donald Trump’s controversial statements regarding Canada, including suggestions of annexation and aggressive trade policies, which turned the tide in the Liberals’ favour.
The victory marks a stunning political turnaround for the party but what are the key factors for this sudden poll reversal that left Conservatives disappointed and paved the way for a fourth Liberal term?
Justin Trudeau’s Resignation
The Liberals faced widespread unpopularity during the tenure of Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, amid soaring costs of living, a burgeoning housing crisis and high levels of immigration. Poilievre seized the moment to target Trudeau’s “woke” policies that have ruined Canada.
The Liberals trailed the opposition Conservatives by at least 25% in popular opinion polls. After Trudeau’s close ally, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and slammed his “political gimmicks”, a growing number of Liberal MPs called on him to step down, which he did in January. Carney replaced him after a party leadership contest on March 9.
Mark Carney has a very strong back ground in economics, but is relatively new to the political landscape. He has never held elected political office before becoming the leader of the Liberal party, and then PM. However, he presented himself as a “crisis manager” in the midst of a slowing economy and would soon become the face of the resistance against Trump’s tariffs.
Trump’s ’51st State’ Threats, Tariffs
Undoubtedly, the Liberal Party can thank Donald Trump for their victory, as the entire election was presented as who would most effectively stand up to the firebrand American President. Since taking office, Trump has imposed steep tariffs on the country next door and repeatedly threatened to make Canada the “51st State” of the US.
These policies angered Canadians, who cancelled travel to America and boycotted US products whenever they could. Suddenly, the key election issue shifted from domestic concerns like cost of living and housing to US-Canada relations and how to deal with Trump.
Carney took the mantle in resisting Trump’s policies, promising to spend billions of dollars to reduce reliance on the US. Poilievre, who shared much of Trump’s firebrand style of politics, also had to change his campaign dramatically after his threats.
Mark Carney’s Message Hits Home
Carney has argued that his global financial experience has prepared him to guide Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs, describing the US President as a threat to the nation. He has also promised to revitalise internal trade and diversify Canada’s trade relationships to lessen reliance on the US.
Many people saw Carney as the man who could save the country from Trump and his repeated threats, thanks to the focus of his election campaign entirely on Trump. Pollsters said his tough position on the US helped the Liberals win an election which was decided in the opposite direction months ago.
He also shunned some of Trudeau’s less popular policies like a carbon tax, focused on the economy and building new trade and security alliances and allying himself more firmly with Europe. He also acknowledged that Trudeau did not focus enough on the Canadian economy.
In his victory speech, Carney repeated his persistent warnings that America “wants our land, our resources, our country” and vowed that Canada will never be the “51st state” of the United States. “President Trump is trying to break us so he can own us. That will never happen,” he said.
Conservatives’ Shortcomings
While the Liberals acted quickly in the face of Trump’s tariff threats, the Conservatives were not able to pivot quickly enough during the campaign trail. Kory Teneycke, a leading Conservative strategist, told ABC News that Poilievre pivoted too late to the main theme of this election, as he took around eight days to even mention Trump.
Furthermore, Poilievre’s aggressive style of politics caused many voters to see him as “Trump lite”. Poilievre’s campaign also mirror much of Trump’s – such as his “Canada First” vision, border regulations, smaller government and anti-woke stance.
While conceding defeat, Poilievre congratulated Carney, saying some “hard lessons” were learned and that he would work with the new government as Canada “stares down tariffs and other irresponsible threats from President Trump”.
What Happens Now?
Carney’s incoming government will now have to deal with the Trump administration, which continues to stress on tariffs. Carney has pledged to quickly begin new trade negotiations with Trump to avoid US tariffs on Canadian auto exports set to kick in on May 3.
The Liberal PM has also announced plans to lower internal trade barriers and bolster major investment projects, such as housing construction, to spur the economy. He said Canada’s old relationship with the US is over and has emphasised closer ties with the UK and Europe.
“This is Canada, and we decide what happens here,” he said. “We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we must never forget the lessons. We have to look out for ourselves. And above all, we have to take care of each other.”
