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Canada’s Liberal Party is going for a party leadership contest that will choose Justin Trudeau’s replacement as the party leader and Prime Minister. This comes as Canada faces a trade war with the US.
Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney are favourites to replace Justin Trudeau as Canadian PM and Liberal Party leader. (Reuters)
Canada’s Liberal Party will announce Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor as the party leader and the next head of government as it battles a trade war with the United States under the governance of Donald Trump.
Trudeau, 52, announced his resignation in January till a next leader is announced, in the face of rising dissent within the party and dismal public opinions. “I intend to resign as party leader and Prime Minister after the party selects its next leader,” said Trudeau, who has been in office since 2015, on January 6.
Trudeau’s popularity has declined in recent months, with his government narrowly surviving several no-confidence votes and critics calling for his resignation. Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland’s resignation in December came as a death blow to his premiership as a growing number of Liberal MPs called on him to step down.
However, Trudeau’s replacement will have several issues to tackle, including negotiating with Trump, who has threatened additional tariffs in Canada, and facing the opposition Conservatives in a general election scheduled for later this year.
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Who Are The Front Runners To Replace Trudeau?
Mark Carney: Former Governor of Canada’s central bank, Carney is the top contender to replace Trudeau, with the most endorsements from party members and the most money raised among the four Liberal candidates. His name has been circulating for years as a potential Liberal leader, largely due to his financial credentials.
Carney is the only major candidate who is not part of Trudeau’s government. He has cast himself as an outsider and said he wanted to focus on the struggling economy. All eyes would be on Carney as he seeks to bring his impressive financial expertise – heading two central banks – into helping Canada’s ailing economy.
Chrystia Freeland: Former deputy CM and financial minister, Freeland’s resignation in December created shockwaves as she was one of Trudeau’s closest allies. However, she parted ways with Trudeau after an argument over spending and penned a letter attacking the prime minister’s leadership and his “political gimmicks.”
Freeland is also a high-profile candidate to replace Trudeau with her strong international credentials and economic expertise. She had previously helped negotiated a trilateral trade deal with the US and Mexico during Trump’s first term and crafted a multibillion-dollar programme to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. However, her long association with Trudeau’s government may pose as a liability.
Karina Gould: She became one of the youngest ever female cabinet minister in 2017 and worked with Trudeau in key ministries, becoming the Liberal Party’s House of Commons leader in 2023. She has called for a “generational shift” in Canadian politics.
Like her rivals, Gould has also strongly opposed Trump’s aggressive trade policies. She proposed raising corporate taxes on companies with an income of over $500 million and wishes to resolve Canada’s trade dispute with the US before the general election.
Frank Baylis: He is a businessman and a former lawmaker who served in the Canadian Parliament from 2015 to 2019. He is seeking to make a political comeback as the “underdog” to replace Trudeau as the Liberal Party leader and Canadian PM.
Baylis has held contrasting views from that of his party, including raising awareness about Islamophobia and calling for the immediate recognition of a Palestinian state. He aims to reduce Canada’s dependence on the United States, but lacks the political or financial support of his other rivals.
How Will Canada’s Next PM Be Chosen?
Unlike in Australia and Britain, where prime ministers are chosen by legislators and can be removed very quickly, the heads of political parties in Canada are chosen by members in special contests. People who have registered as Liberals can vote in this special election.
Canadians and permanent residents are eligible for membership. The party said on January 30 that around 400,000 people had signed up to vote to choose the next Prime Minister of Canada.
The contest will be a ranked ballot of voters in each of the 343 parliamentary constituencies, also known as ridings. Each riding is allocated 100 points. These are distributed based on the ratio of votes won by a contestant in each riding.
Voters in each riding rank the candidates in order of preference. So if Candidate A won 60% of the votes in a riding and Candidate B won 40%, they would earn 60 and 40 points, respectively. The process is repeated in all 343 ridings and then the national count takes place. If no contestant gets more than 50% of the overall points on the first count, the leadership contestant who received the least points is eliminated.
The Liberal Party will redistribute the ballots of the eliminated contestant to the other contenders based on who voters in each riding chose as their second option. This process continues until someone takes more than 50% of the points.
When Will Be The Result Announced?
The Liberals say they will unveil the result at a gathering in Ottawa on March 9 with the first round of voting being announced at about 6:30 pm ET (4:00 am Indian time).
Canada’s next general election is scheduled for October 20. However, the new Prime Minister could call an election any time after March 9. An election could also be triggered in late March, when a vote of no confidence in the government is expected in Parliament. If all the opposition parties vote against the Liberals, the government will fall.
Polls show that the Liberals are virtually tied with the official opposition Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives had a double-digit lead for more than a year but that advantage vanished after Trudeau announced he was stepping down and Trump threatened tariffs on Canadian imports.
Back in January when Trudeau resigned, the party lost the support of the Jagmeet Singh-led New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Atlantic, Ontario and Quebec caucuses of the Liberal Party.
(with Reuters inputs)
