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With a consistent 7–8 per cent vote share in urban-rural fringes, Chirag Paswan is back in the game—not as a marginal player, but possibly as a kingmaker
Chirag Paswan wants more seats this time, and many of the constituencies he is eyeing seem to be overlapping with core JD(U) voter bases. (X @iChiragPaswan)
In Bihar’s complex caste-and-coalition matrix, Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas)’s Chirag Paswan continues to punch above his electoral weight. With a dedicated vote share of 7–8 per cent, largely consolidated among the Paswan community and youth, he aims to emerge as the potential kingmaker ahead of the year-end state elections.
With a curious combination of criticism and praise for Nitish Kumar’s government, Paswan manages to hold considerable political relevance, often wielding more influence than his party’s modest vote share would suggest. That is precisely what Bihar’s emerging political force Jan Suraj party chief Prashant Kishor is reportedly betting on.
According to sources in NDA, Kishor recently floated a backroom proposal to Paswan, urging him to join forces with his newly floated party, and together they could aim to get at least 35-40 seats, potentially disrupting both NDA and Mahagathbandhan calculations. However, Paswan rejected his proposal and continued to be a part of the NDA, said a senior BJP leader, who is part of the alliance’s election committee in the state.
Meanwhile, Paswan wants more seats this time, and many of the constituencies he is eyeing seem to be overlapping with core JD(U) voter bases. This is not just about optics, but is a direct provocation for Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), whom BJP considers a mandatory alliance partner. This is also why BJP is unlikely to allow Paswan a free run, fearing that internal conflict and a fragmented alliance of the kind seen in 2020 could again dent their own tally.
The RJD, on the other hand, remains a formidable bloc with its solid 35 per cent vote base holding firm. Talking to News18, a senior RJD leader said, “Despite challenges, our party is unlikely to bleed votes. In the last election, we fielded around 10-11 Kushwaha candidates, and all of them won. We will address the caste-community electoral aspirations which we know NDA cannot do. They have several compulsions.”
The Paswan Variable
In Bihar’s fractured political terrain, Paswan is quietly emerging as a crucial disruptor, yet again. With a consistent 7–8 per cent vote share in urban-rural fringes, he is back in the game—not as a marginal player, but possibly as a kingmaker.
And this time, all political parties are making calculations that may be just enough to tilt the post-poll math in a tightly contested election. “If we need to manage a winning margin of at least 30–35 seats or more this time. Bihar elections are crucial to us for several reasons, specifically for the 2027 Presidential elections. And, that is why we cannot lose any seat that is supposed to come to us,” says a strategist in the BJP camp. But Paswan’s growing ambition could throw a spanner in the works.
Paswan is insisting on a higher seat share this time, well beyond what the BJP and JDU are comfortable offering. The constituencies he’s eyeing overlap with JDU’s traditional voter base — OBCs, EBCs, and even some Mahadalit clusters, making it politically combustible.
He is banking on the fact that Nitish Kumar’s popularity is at a historic low with slip-ups in governance, anti-incumbency and the recent rise in crimes, and any clash over these seats could play into his “son of Dalit soil” narrative. However, the BJP will not let him off the track so easily.
A senior BJP leader said, “Senior leaders will be in Bihar this week and they will talk to Paswan-ji. In fact, the message has reached him already which is reflected in his recent statement as well.”
On the other side, the RJD holds firm with its estimated 35 per cent vote share, a solid Muslim-Yadav base. In other words, their caste arithmetic is holding strong, even if their alliance is messy.
Bihar is staring at a volatile, multi-polar contest where even a 5 per cent swing can redraw the map. And in that churn, Chirag Paswan is not just a factor—he could be the formula.
Madhuparna Das, Associate Editor (policy) at CNN News 18, has been in journalism for nearly 14 years. She has extensively been covering politics, policy, crime and internal security issues. She has covered Naxa…Read More
Madhuparna Das, Associate Editor (policy) at CNN News 18, has been in journalism for nearly 14 years. She has extensively been covering politics, policy, crime and internal security issues. She has covered Naxa… Read More
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