Daily Mail’s election model reveals Trump has surged ahead of Kamala Harris … and shows how RFK Jr dropping out hands key state to Donald

The latest polls have tilted the Daily Mail’s election model in Donald Trump’s direction giving him a decisive lead over Kamala Harris a day before he goes head to head with his Democratic rival on the debate stage.

The algorithms show he now has a 55 percent chance of becoming president, a 4.5-point boost since last week.

The model works by crunching all the latest polling numbers—national and state—along with decades of historical trends and economic data before feeding the results through the electoral college to work out who is most likely to hit the 270 votes needed to win the election.

Our result comes hard on the heels of a New York Times/Siena College poll giving Trump a one-point lead at the weekend, suggesting Harris’s honeymoon is coming to an end.

Feeding that and other recent surveys into the model, developed for us by J.L. Partners, shows that the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania has now moved clearly into the Trump column.

It has gone from a 50 percent tossup to a 60 percent chance of a Trump win, largely because of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to end his independent run.

And there is more bad news for the vice president in the so called ‘Blue Wall.’

Again it comes down to RFK Jr. and th impact of his name being removed from ballots in Michigan.

Harris’s chance of winning that swing state has dropped from 64 percent to 52 percent.

However, there is some good news for the vice president.

She has firmed up her chance of success in Wisconsin, moving from a 55 percent chance of victory to 63 percent.

James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, said momentum was clearly now with Trump. 

‘Though the race remains incredibly tight, he is increasing his chance of victory. He does this via the Sun Belt, but also through Pennsylvania. 

‘Much of the movement is due to changes with who is on the ballot in each state. As things stand, RFK Jr has been removed from the Michigan ballot. If that holds, it significantly weakens Harris in the state. 

The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will go down to the wire

‘This is our last update before Tuesday’s presidential debate. The ramifications of that on the model—and the race—could be very significant.’

Overall the model suggests Trump has a path to 287 Electoral College Votes while Harris is on course for 251. 

But Harris is predicted as the most likely (65 percent) to win the popular vote.

The model will be updated each week with all the latest data, showing the shifting contours of the race for the White House right up to November 5.

Tuesday brings a potentially decisive moment when Harris meets Trump in a televised debate.