A new poll shows that the state of New York could be competitive for Republicans as candidates eye challenging Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul who is running for reelection in 2026.
A GrayHouse poll revealed that just 36 percent approve of New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s performance and 55 percent disapprove.
‘Kathy Hochul’s numbers have imploded,’ a New York Republican political operative told the Daily Mail, pointing to the devastating approval numbers for her in a state that is primarily comprised of Democrats.
Even President Trump has a higher political rating than Hochul in the heavily Democratic state – with 43 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving.
The poll was conducted between April 22-28 and featured 826 total registered voters in New York with a 4 point margin of error.
Political consultants were dazzled by President Donald Trump’s increased voter share in New York in the 2024 election, and are excited by indications that the rightward realignment can continue.
Issues like crime, immigration, and corruption are fueling more support toward Republicans and away from the single party leadership that has been running the state for decades. The state Democratic leadership and implementation of draconian coronavirus restrictions also hurt their support with voters.
Republicans have been reaping the benefits of the realignment.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul speaks at a news conference, Feb. 20, 2025
Chobani Founder and CEO Hamdi Ulukaya, left, is presented with the “Spoon to the State” from New York State Governor Kathy Hochul during a groundbreaking ceremony
The Republican Party gained Hispanic, Black, Asian-American voters as suburbanites and working class voters responded to their message of tougher enforcement of crime and immigration, and promising to address the cost of living and inflation.
Trump shocked the state after he only lost by 13 points to Kamala Harris, increasing his voter share in 2024 by 11 points.
Trump gained more than 600,000 votes in New York between the 2016 and 2024 elections. Harris’ margin of victory was the narrowest of Democratic presidential candidates since 1992.
In 2022, Republicans flipped all four congressional seats away from Democrats, helping give House Republicans the majority in Washington, DC.
Republican candidate for governor Rep. Lee Zeldin came within 6 points of defeating Hochul as the final tally was 47 percent to 53 percent.
Republicans are anticipating a rematch with Hochul as her approval ratings are weaker than ever.
‘The rightward shift of New York in particular New York City has been happening since 2006,’ GrayHouse pollster Landon Wall told the Daily Mail.
Wall indicated that Trump’s gains in New York City could even help a potential future Republican candidate.
But the newfound excitement from Republicans in the state is bigger than just Donald Trump.
‘There’s this energy and this desire for something counter to the one party rule in New York that is separate from the Trump effect,’ Wall said.
Sixty percent of voters statewide say it’s “time for someone new,” including 75 percent of Independents and even 34 percent of Democrats.
The poll shows that Rep. Elise Stefanik is within striking distance of Hochul if she decides to run a campaign for governor.
Forty-six percent of voters said they would vote for Hohul, while Stefanik would earn 40 percent of the vote. Fourteen percent of voters were undecided.
That’s a strong start for Stefanik to consider the race, as she has not even announced a campaign.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-NY., speaks during the House Committee on Education and Workforce hearing
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) walks through Statuary Hall
Stefanik has a clear lead with Republicans in the state as 44 percent of primary voters signaled their support for a potential run for governor. Only seven percent chose Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
In an interview with the Daily Mail, Stefanik indicated she was seriously considering a run for governor.
‘If you look at the past few election cycles, New York is moving toward the Republican direction and I believe that’s a result of single party failed Democrat rule led by Kathy Hochul,’ she said.
Originally selected by Trump to serve as his Ambassador to the U.N., the president withdrew her nomination so that she could remain in the House of Representatives where Republicans are clinging to a slim majority.
But that did not stop her political momentum. Stefanik is stepping up the number of events in the state and getting strong support for a run.
‘I’m gonna fight for New Yorkers like I always do. We are crisscrossing the state … we are hearing an outpouring of support importantly not just from Republicans but from Independents and Democrats as well. It has been overwhelming. Clearly New Yorkers want to fire Kathy Hochul,’ she said.
Trump’s performance in the state, his rallies, and events only helped increase the number of Republican supporters, she said.
‘The trends are only continuing. You look at President Donald Trump’s outcome on Election Day in New York, he did better in some parts of the city than any Republican in decades,’ she said.
