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Goldman Sachs raised the US recession likelihood to 45% and cut the 2025 Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.05%. Trump’s tariffs caused sharp declines in global and Asian markets.
After the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ imposed by US President Donald Trump across countries, analysts expect the US economic to fall into recession.
US Recession: Goldman Sachs has recently increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States from 35% to 45% over the next 12 months and reduced its GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 to 0.05%. According to Goldman, if most of the April 9 tariffs are implemented, a recession is expected.
This economic slowdown is attributed to tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, heightened policy uncertainty, and anticipated reductions in capital spending, Goldman Sachs pointed.
If all tariffs take effect, the rise could be 20pp, possibly triggering a full recession forecast, Goldman Sachs said adding, sectoral and country-specific deals might delay some impacts, but the risk remains high.
Indian Stock Market On Monday Tracks Global Market Fallout
The turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies has reverberated through global markets. On Monday, Indian equity indices, the BSE Sensex and Nifty50, saw significant declines at market open, mirroring the steep drops in global markets due to fears of a growing trade war. The BSE Sensex fell by 3,379.19 points, or 4.48%, to 71,985.50, while the Nifty50 dropped by 901.05 points, or 3.93%, to 22,003.40.
Asian Markets Fall
The Indian stock market’s reaction was in line with the global trend, as Wall Street futures decreased by around 4% on Sunday evening, and Asia-Pacific markets plunged by 4-6% amid trade war concerns. Asian markets, including Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, also fell sharply, each dropping by 8%.
Trump’s Tariff
On April 2, Trump implemented reciprocal tariffs on various countries, including 34% on China, 27% on India, and 20% on the European Union. This move shocked both US and global financial markets, resulting in a loss of nearly $6 trillion from the value of American stocks. Responding to the market downturn, Trump indicated no intention of reversing his plans, stating, “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
