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The polls have failed to project a clear winner and the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains close. Here’s what to expect on November 5.
The 2024 US election is unfolding as one of the most intense races in recent memory with no clear indication of who will be the winner among Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. (IMAGE: AP PHOTO)
Come November 5, Americans will find themselves voting in the closest elections to have been fought in the nation’s history. In the blue corner, Democrat nominee and Vice-President Kamala Harris will attempt to become the US’ first female and Black and Indian-American President and in the red corner awaits Donald Trump, the former US president, who is yet to concede that he lost the previous election in 2020.
The polls have failed to calculate the winner and the polls that have been released which show one candidate leading ahead of the other are not conclusive because they fall within the margin of error.
What Do Polls Suggest
Latest national polls released on Friday reveal a close contest in the US presidential race, indicating a possible shift towards Trump. The New York Times and Siena College poll shows both Harris and Trump locked at 48% each, while a CNN poll reports a similar tie at 47%. The Wall Street Journal poll puts Trump slightly ahead at 47%, with Harris trailing at 45%, factoring in third-party contenders. As these differences are minor and fall within the margin of error, Democrats claim that support for them remains consistent and that there is no significant shift in voter loyalty.
Polls Indecisive, Pollsters Look Elsewhere
Speaking to an Australian news outlet, University of Sydney associate professor David Smith, who specialises in US politics, said that this is the closest election being fought since 2000, based on polling data.
“The fact that nearly all the polls that we see in most of the states are so close, it just makes it a lot harder to predict than any election in recent memory,” Smith was quoted as saying by abc.co.au.
“It’s getting to the point where whenever I see a new poll, it doesn’t really tell me anything new about who’s going to win the election,” he further added.
So pollsters, according to a report by the Washington Post are looking elsewhere. As of late Friday, over 36 million Americans had already voted early, either in person or by mail, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. Pollsters are closely examining these early voting trends.
Initially, the signs seemed to favour Republicans; however, Democrats say they’ve noticed encouraging trends for their side in recent days. Still, no clear conclusions have emerged.
Contest Shapers
Key questions remain about the factors that could shape the outcome. A major one is whether Harris has more potential to broaden her support compared to Trump.
In his past campaigns, Trump reached no higher than 47% of the popular vote. He succeeded in 2016 as third-party candidates drew nearly 6% of votes, but he fell short in 2020 when their share dropped to under 3%. Biden, in comparison, won 51% of the popular vote, a 4-point lead over Trump, securing a narrow electoral college win.
However, both of them have failed to assure Americans that they would herald change.
How To Win: Kamala’s Hurdles
Harris’s most direct route to an electoral college majority lies in reclaiming the three Great Lakes states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—that once formed the Democratic “Blue Wall”, the Washington Post said in a report.
This term, introduced by journalist Ron Brownstein, refers to 18 states and the District of Columbia that consistently voted Democrat in six presidential elections before Trump broke the “Blue Wall” in 2016.
If Harris can secure these three states as Biden did, along with an extra electoral vote from one of Nebraska’s congressional districts, she would reach the winning threshold of 270 electoral votes even if she loses other key battlegrounds.
Could Harris reach close enough to Biden’s 2020 support to gain an electoral college win remains a key question, the report said.
How To Win: Trump Hopes 2016 Repeat
Trump’s approach in the key northern states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—will remain focused on maximising support in small towns and rural areas and he’ll hope to breach the “Blue Wall” like he did in 2016.
The Washington Post report said that Trump’s path to victory, even with wins in the Sun Belt states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, he would still need to win at least one key industrial state to clinch victory. Pennsylvania stands out due to its 19 electoral votes—the highest among the swing states.
If Harris wins Michigan and Wisconsin but loses Pennsylvania, she would then need to capture either North Carolina or Georgia (both with 16 electoral votes) and also win Nevada, where Trump previously lost by around 2 percentage points in each of his past races.
What To Expect
Observers can expect this election to polarise and divide Americans further. People will vote keeping in mind gender dynamics, abortion is undoubtedly a key issue and state of education and college politics will play a key role in the election outcome.
The Republican Party is attempting to broaden its coalition beyond just White, working-class voters to include more diverse groups, particularly Latino and Black men. This represents a strategic shift in Trump’s approach to attract a wider voter base.
But in Kamala’s case there are concerns about voter apathy, especially among young African Americans, could significantly impact Harris’s chances.
However, Kamala also finds the backing of women who are increasingly supporting Democrats.
