Top GCSE grades could drop by up to 71,000 to reverse easy Covid marking, but more ‘feel-good results’ may also be on the cards, analysis suggests.
Alan Smithers, professor of education at Buckingham University, said grades of 7 and above are due to fall when pupils pick up their results this Thursday [22nd].
The drop could be up to 1.2 percentage points, bringing those getting at least a 7 – the equivalent of the old A – down to 20.8 per cent, or one in five.
This is because marking across the UK is due to return to 2019 levels this year, after it was vastly inflated during the Covid years.
However, Professor Smithers acknowledged we could also see a repeat of last week’s surprise bumper A-level results, which were a record high for non-Covid times.
The drop could be up to 1.2 percentage points, bringing those getting at least a 7 – the equivalent of the old A – down to 20.8 per cent, or one in five (stock image)
Following the national lockdowns, exams were cancelled in 2020 and 2021, with teachers instead doing assessments – leading to inflated grades. Pictured: Students receive their GCSE results at the City of London Academy on August 24, 2023
He said: ‘I do think we will see fewer top grades in 2024 than 2023, but I am not sure how many because the Department for Education (DfE) is currently giving the impression of wanting ‘feel-good’ results.’
He added that there may be a ‘change in the political mood’ affecting outcomes this year.
Following the national lockdowns, exams were cancelled in 2020 and 2021, with teachers instead doing assessments – leading to inflated grades.
England’s results did not return to pre-Covid levels last year, even though they were scheduled to.
In addition, Wales and Northern Ireland are due to return to pre-Covid levels this year for the first time.
Last year, 22.0 per cent of entries were graded 7 and above, lower than the high of 28.9 per cent in 2021 but higher than the 2019 rate of 20.8 per cent.
Professor Smithers said that if only Wales and Northern Ireland drop their results, the reduction in top grades will only be 17,700.
Alan Smithers, professor of education at Buckingham University, said grades of 7 and above are due to fall when pupils pick up their results this Thursday
And if England allows results to rise again, as it did for A-levels, the overall UK top grades could rise, rather than fall.
Professor Smithers said last year’s results were ‘still leaving some way to go to restore to the pre-pandemic level.’
‘At most the fall in top grades would be about 71,000 which is the 1.2 per cent drop in top grades required to bring the 2023 percentage down to what it was in 2019,’ he said.
However, he added: ‘Given the conflicting signals, it is difficult to say, with any confidence, what the GCSE results in 2024 will be…
‘My best guess is that the grades will not be very different from what they were in 2023, if anything, falling somewhat.’ Results each year are set by Ofqual, which decides where grade boundaries should be to produce a certain percentage getting each grade.
However, they are also tweaked each year to reflect how high-performing the year group is deemed to be, based on prior attainment.
Professor Smithers’ wide-ranging report also called for an end to compulsory re-sits for those getting less than a 4 – a low C – in GCSE maths and English, until they are 18 (Stock Image)
Professor Smithers’ wide-ranging report also called for an end to compulsory re-sits for those getting less than a 4 – a low C – in GCSE maths and English, until they are 18.
Many pupils continue to fail these repeatedly, which is ‘demoralising’ and ‘soul-destroying’, so Professor Smithers suggested there should be an alternative qualification.
He also said results over the Pandemic years ‘makes one wonder if schools have become biased against boys.’
This is because girls gained their highest ever lead over boys during the teacher assessment years of the Pandemic – suggesting teachers favour girls over boys.
In 2020, girls were 8 percentage points ahead of boys in terms of grades 7 and above, and in 2021 it was 9 points – 2.5 more than in 2019.
Last year, after exams had been reintroduced, the gap narrowed to 5.8 points.
