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While the desirability of 8% growth rate is unquestionable, it’s important to recognise that the global environment – political and economic – will influence India’s growth outcomes, says Economic Survey.
PM Modi has also said he is confident India will become developed by 2047, when the country will celebrates 100 years of Independence.
India needs to achieve a growth rate of around 8 per cent at constant prices, on average, for about a decade or two in order to realise its economic aspirations of becoming ‘Viksit Bharat’ by the time of the centenary of independence, according to the Economic Survey 2024-25 released on Friday.
“To realise its economic aspirations of becoming Viksit Bharat by the time of the centenary of independence, India needs to achieve a growth rate of around 8 per cent at constant prices, on average, for about a decade or two. While the desirability of this growth rate is unquestionable, it’s important to recognise that the global environment – political and economic – will influence India’s growth outcomes,” the Survey, authored by a team led by India’s Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran.
The Survey also flagged China’s economic and strategic dominance.
“Acknowledging the elephant [and the dragon] in the room that will have a bearing on the growth projections – fundamental shifts in the global economic order combined with China’s manufacturing prowess and strategic dominance,” the Survey said.
Several commentators have recently written about the manufacturing “colossus” that China has become in the last six years, the Survey said.
The effects of the rise of China as a manufacturing colossus are seen in automobile (especially electric vehicles) manufacturing, mining and refining capacity for critical minerals (Copper, Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, Graphite, etc.) and in clean energy equipment, etc.
Ahead of the Budget Session of Parliament, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday also said this is going to be the first full Budget of the third term of the government. “I can confidently say India will become developed by 2047, when the country will celebrates 100 years of Independence.”
The Economic Survey 2024-25, tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday in the Lok Sabha, expects the Indian economy to grow 6.3-6.8 per cent in the financial year 2025-26. The FY26 GDP growth projection is in line with the International Monetary Fund’s 6.5 per cent forecast. However, it is lower than the World Bank’s 6.7 per cent estimate.
