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GDP growth is expected to be slowed to 6.2-6.9 per cent this quarter due to factors like heavy rains and weak corporate margins.
India’s Q2 GDP data will be available on November 29, 2024, at 4 pm.
India’s GDP growth data for the latest July-September 2024 quarter (Q2 FY25) is set to be released on Thursday at 4 pm. According to analysts, the GDP is expected to slow to 6.2-6.9 per cent this quarter due to factors like heavy rains and weak corporate margins.
During the previous June 2024 quarter (Q1 FY25), India’s economy grew by 6.7 per cent. In the corresponding quarter last year (Q2 FY24), The country had posted an economic growth of 7.6 per cent.
In the latest Q2FY25, Bank of Baroda expects a GDP growth of 6.9 per cent, while IDFC First Bank pegs it at 6.2 per cent. Ratings agencies ICRA and India Ratings said the growth is likely to remain at 6.5 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively. State Bank of India (SBI) anticipates the growth to slow to 6.5 per cent and global financial services firm Nomura sees the Q2FY25 GDP growth at 6.3 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects India’s Q2 GDP growth at 6.8 per cent, according to its October bulletin. It is lower than its earlier estimate of 7 per cent.
“India’s GDP growth is estimated to slow down to 6.5 per cent in Q2 FY2025 due to factors like heavy rains and weak corporate margins. While government spending and kharif sowing have shown positive trends, the industrial sector, particularly mining and electricity, is expected to slow down,” ICRA said in its note.
It, however, added that despite these challenges, the services sector is projected to improve, and a back-ended recovery is anticipated, leading to a full-year GDP growth of 7.0 per cent.
However, risks such as a slowdown in personal loan growth and geopolitical uncertainties remain, ICRA said.
SBI in its report said, “Indicators in consumption and demand, agri, industry, service and other indicators, which indicate a dip in Q2FY25. The percentage of indicators showing acceleration is declined to 69 per cent in Q2 FY25 vs 80 per cent in Q2 FY24 and 78 per cent in Q1 FY25.”
It, however, added that expected buoyancy in Q3 and Q4 growth numbers could still push overall yearly GDP growth closer to 7 per cent in FY25.
