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Israel-Iran War: Crude oil prices have surged sharply in recent sessions as geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel escalate
Crude Oil Price Today
Crude Oil Price Prediction: Crude oil prices have surged sharply in recent sessions as geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel escalate. Market analysts tracking the oil and gas sector believe this could be an opportune time to consider upstream oil producers such as ONGC and Oil India, as Brent crude may soon hit $95 per barrel.
Crude Oil Prices Today Crude oil prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) opened higher on Monday, extending their rally, as the heightened tensions in the Middle East due to the intensifying Israel-Iran war increased concerns of disruption in oil exports.
MCX crude oil prices opened higher at ₹6,343 per barrel as against their previous close of ₹6,285. At 9:15 AM, the MCX crude oil rate was up 1.05% at ₹6,351 per barrel. On Friday, MCX crude oil prices jumped 7.77%.
In the international market, Brent crude futures rose 0.82% to $74.84 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.99% to $73.70. They had surged more than $4 earlier in the session. Both benchmarks settled 7% higher on Friday, after witnessing a 13% rise during the session to their highest levels since January.
ONGC and Oil India: Beneficiaries of Rising Crude
In a recent note, JM Financial reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on both ONGC and Oil India. The brokerage firm highlighted that the current market prices of these companies are discounting crude realisation at just $65 per barrel, far below the current and expected price levels.
Every $1 rise in crude price translates to a 1.5–2% increase in EPS for both ONGC and Oil India, JM Financial estimates. Moreover, strong production growth of 15% for ONGC and 25% for Oil India over the next 1–3 years is expected to drive further earnings growth.
ICICI Securities noted the importance of Iranian crude shipments—predominantly to China—and flagged potential downside risks for oil marketing companies (OMCs) due to higher Brent levels.
“Brent at $75 is $6-7 above our FY26 estimate of $68/bbl,” said ICICI Securities, adding that this may negatively impact EPS estimates for OMCs, while upstream firms stand to gain. Despite recent price hikes, crude remains $9 below the FY22–25 average and $4 under FY25 averages, indicating that supply-demand imbalances are still in play.
Geopolitical Risks and Sectoral Impact
Choice Broking sees crude potentially touching $95 in the coming weeks if tensions persist. However, it expects prices to recede over time, forecasting Brent at $69 by end-2025.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which 50% of India’s crude and 40% of LNG imports pass, remains a critical chokepoint. Any disruption there could have a serious impact on India’s energy supply.
“While sectors like aviation, paints, tyres, and adhesives may take a hit due to rising oil derivative costs, upstream players like ONGC and Oil India are likely to remain resilient,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
JM Financial remains cautious on oil marketing companies, stating it does not see Brent exceeding $80 sustainably. “We maintain SELL on HPCL/IOCL and HOLD on BPCL,” it said, citing aggressive capital expenditure plans and valuation concerns—OMCs are currently trading 10–30% above historical averages.
Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a…Read More
Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a… Read More
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