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Jonathan McDowell warns that if the heat shield does not break, the capsule could turn into a dangerous, uncontrollable metal sphere falling from the sky
According to scientists, predicting the exact landing site of Kosmos 482 is highly difficult. (Representative/AP File)
A spacecraft launched 53 years ago is now posing a potential threat as it hurtles back toward Earth. In 1972, the Soviet Union attempted an ambitious mission to land on Venus. But the plan failed when the Kosmos 482 spacecraft malfunctioned mid-flight and became trapped in Earth’s orbit.
Now, this half-ton metal sphere is expected to make an uncontrolled re-entry. Experts remain uncertain about where it will land, how much of it will survive the descent, and the possible damage it could cause on impact.
Kosmos 482 was originally built as a spherical landing capsule, about one metre in diameter, designed to endure Venus’s extreme heat and toxic atmosphere with a strong heat shield. However, a rocket malfunction left it stranded in Earth’s orbit, where it has remained for the past 53 years.
According to The Guardian, Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek estimates that the spacecraft will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around May 10, descending at a speed of approximately 242 km per hour.
When asked about the danger, Langbroek stated, “There is no need to panic, but the danger is not completely averted.” Despite its small size of 500 kg, and even if it does not burn up in the atmosphere, the risk it poses is comparable to that of a meteorite falling.
Every year, numerous meteorites enter Earth’s atmosphere, and the risk of injury from falling space debris remains extremely low comparable to the odds of being struck by lightning. However, in the case of Kosmos 482, if its heat shield stays intact, the spacecraft could survive re-entry without burning up.
Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center has cautioned that if the shield doesn’t break apart, the capsule could become a dangerous, uncontrollable metal sphere plummeting from the sky.
According to scientists, predicting the exact landing site of Kosmos 482 is highly difficult. It could fall anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude—an area stretching from London to Edmonton in Canada. Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek noted that much of this zone is ocean, raising the likelihood that the spacecraft will crash into water.
Scientists are also unsure whether the capsule’s 53-year-old parachute system will still function. Similar uncontrolled re-entries have occurred before—China’s booster rocket in 2022 and the Tiangong-1 space station in 2018 both fell back to Earth, with most debris landing in the sea.
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