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Scientists warn that a catastrophic volcanic eruption could occur this century, with humanity unprepared. They note that the 1815 Tambora eruption in Indonesia caused a ‘year without summer’, but the next eruption could be far more devastating
Climate experts like Markus Stoffel of Geneva University stress that the critical question is not if but when such an eruption will occur. (News18)
Scientists have long expressed concern that humanity’s end could result from a viral epidemic, an asteroid collision, or the catastrophic aftermath of a massive volcanic eruption. While the probability of an asteroid strike is relatively low, researchers warn that the likelihood of a large-scale volcanic event is much higher and could occur as soon as this century.
Studies suggest there is a one-in-six chance of a massive volcanic emission within this century. According to a CNN report, such an event would lead to unprecedented climate upheaval, surpassing the devastation caused by the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption in Indonesia. This eruption remains the most catastrophic on record, releasing particle clouds that drastically cooled the Earth. The year 1816 was famously dubbed the ‘year without a summer’, as global crop failures, widespread famine, and a cholera epidemic ensued.
The Tambora eruption’s chilling effects were so profound they are believed to have inspired Swiss scientist Mary Shelley to write her novel Frankenstein during the cold and bleak summer of 1816. However, scientists now warn that a similar or more severe event is increasingly likely. The consequences this time could be even graver due to the added pressures of a rapidly warming climate.
Why The Risk Is Greater Today
Climate experts like Markus Stoffel of Geneva University stress that the critical question is not if but when such an eruption will occur. While volcanic eruptions have always impacted the planet, today’s hotter climate amplifies their potential destructiveness. For instance, the 1991 Pinatubo eruption released 15 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere, cooling the Earth by 0.5°C. Similarly, Tambora’s eruption cooled the planet by 1°C. However, the warmer conditions today would exacerbate these effects.
A hotter atmosphere accelerates the dispersion of sulphur dioxide, leading to faster and more severe cooling. Additionally, warmer ocean surfaces could intensify atmospheric cooling. Climate change also heightens the likelihood of volcanic eruptions, creating a dangerous feedback loop.
The Economic And Geopolitical Impact
According to an analysis by Lloyd’s, an eruption on the scale of Tambora could result in economic losses exceeding $3.6 trillion (£2.9 trillion). The most affected nations would likely include the United States, Russia, and China.
Alarmingly, predicting such events remains beyond current scientific capabilities. While areas in Indonesia and the United States are under close observation, experts admit that pinpointing the timing and location of a major eruption is impossible.
