It all comes down to this.
Almost two years after Donald Trump announced he was running for president and as one of the most dramatic campaigns in history draws to a close, the wait begins for the results.
The race is set to be one of the closest in decades and polls shows Trump and Kamala Harris are deadlocked across the country.
All eyes will be on the seven battleground states on Tuesday night.
But there are also six key voter groups that will have a major impact on determining the next occupant of the White House.
DailyMail.com’s pollster James Johnson, the founder of J.L. Partners, has broken down just how important these demographics are.
Over the last six months I have traveled the swing states.
Two debates, two hurricanes, and countless interviews later, we have arrived at Election Day.
Because American political opinion is so diverse – and so polarized – there is no one type of swing voter who will determine the outcome.
Instead, the result hinges on several groups who, depending on how they move, will put Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the White House.
This is the cast that will decide the election:
1. WHITE TRUMP MAN: ROBERT
Importance to election: 9/10
States most important in: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
I meet Robert in the outskirts of Reno, Nevada.
This state looks like it should lean Republican: it has many rural voters, has the highest grocery costs of any state bar California, and only six states have a smaller proportion of voters who are college-educated.
All of those states vote Republican. If people like Robert turn out, Nevada’s habit for staying blue could change.
Robert used to be a Democrat, voting Obama in 2008 and 2012. But he is now locked in for Trump. When Trump won in 2016, attacks on him by Democrats and the mainstream media got him riled up.
‘No matter what he did, they were going to make him look bad’.
Robert from Reno, Nevada, used to be a Democrat, voting Obama in 2008 and 2012. But he is now locked in for Trump
For Robert, Trump delivered on his promises – and his Covid relief payments saved his livelihood – ‘You can’t say that for any other president’. He loathes Kamala Harris, calling her an ‘actress’, a ‘fake’, even a ‘slut’.
He will back Trump because he ‘is not one of the establishment’s puppets’ and will ‘change the narrative’.
But Robert – and plenty of white Trump backers across the country – still need encouragement to vote.
He voted third party in 2016 and talks of a general disenchantment with the political establishment.
They are not uncritical of Trump either, finding his brash tone off-putting.
People like Robert could easily throw their arms up and stay on the couch.
The early voting numbers certainly bear that out, with 54 percent of the early votes from states that report them being cast by women, compared to 46 percent for men.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at the Santander Arena on November 04, 2024 in Reading, Pennsylvania
In our last Daily Mail poll, Trump led Harris with men by 22 points, compared to Harris leading women by 14 points.
But for those numbers to be reflected in the result, Trump’s diehard supporters – largely white, rural men – need to turn out.
A Trump victory depends on people like Robert getting to the voting booth tomorrow.
2. HARRIS’ BLACK BASE: MARY
Importance to election: 8/10
States most important in: Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania
Mary is the bulwark of Kamala Harris’ support in Georgia.
Living in the suburbs of Atlanta, she is one of 310,000 registered African-American voters in heavily metro Fulton County who Harris will be relying on to get her to victory in the Peach State and beyond.
She finds Kamala Harris ‘something different’ and is excited about the ‘spectacular’ possibility of a black woman finally becoming President. She thinks Trump a monster, telling me ‘the bullet hit the wrong person’.
She is ‘voting Blue’ – and she tells me most of her born-again Christian church is too.
With Harris dominating among black voters, by 78 percent to 15 percent in our final Daily Mail poll, the Vice President benefits from these voters wherever they are.
But of the swing states, they hold the most power in Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Mary is the bulwark of Kamala Harris’ support in Georgia. Living in the suburbs of Atlanta, she is one of 310,000 registered African-American voters in heavily metro Fulton County who Harris will be relying on
Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a canvass kickoff event on November 04, 2024 in Moosic, Pennsylvania
The signs from early voting are mixed on how well Harris is doing. In majority black Detroit turnout is surging, already far surpassing 2022’s early voting numbers. Black early voting in North Carolina has also reached a similar share to what it was in 2020.
But in Georgia, Mary and her congregation might not be enough: 26.3 percent of early voters are showing up on voter rolls as African-American.
That is down from 28.3 percent in 2020 and 27.8 percent in 2016.
3. SELZER LADIES: TINA AND JULIE
Importance to election: 9/10
States most important in: Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan
Tina lives in Erie, Pennsylvania – a key bellwether county that usually votes in line with who the President is. In 2016, it went to Trump, in 2020 to Biden.
Tina, a 42-year-old bartender, is the epitome of the kind of voter that Harris needs to win over and get to the polls.
She has conservative views on the border, and she thinks Trump was better on the economy.
But she is backing Kamala Harris because of her position on women’s rights.
Tina, a 42-year-old bartender, is the epitome of the kind of voter that Harris needs to win over and get to the polls
Pollster James Johnson (left) speaks to a voter during his exhaustive research across the U.S.
‘She’s for women, she’s strong’, Tina tells me. She worries about a world without abortion rights despite not being ‘pro-abortion’ herself. ‘We have to have the freedom to choose. Politicians shouldn’t decide. If they do, we’d slip into a communist country’.
She is the voter that Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducted the shock Iowa poll showing Harris up three points, says could deliver the election for Kamala Harris.
The Vice President might have persuaded Tina but she struggles with others. Julie, a 55-year-old insurance agent in Lake Havasu City, Arizona, agrees with Harris on abortion but backs Trump because he ‘loves America more’.
If Harris can persuade Selzer Lady to put abortion first and can get her to the polls in big numbers, then they could deliver the White House for the Vice President.
4. THE TRUE UNDECIDEDS: JOSE
Importance to election: 6/10
States most important in: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Jose is one of a tiny two percent of voters: he has not made his mind up yet. ‘Life was really good under Trump’, Jose tells me from his Scottsdale, Arizona apartment. ‘Back then I could afford to go on vacation, now I just pay my rent and buy my groceries and that’s it’.
He likes Kamala Harris. He thinks ‘she did good in the debate’, that she’s likeable ‘in a silly, goofy way’. He could vote for her because she is relatable.
But when I press him, it is Donald Trump that he leans toward by the narrowest of margins. ‘He just has more balls’. Issues in the news are more likely to sway Jose in these closing days: he found Harris’s response to the hurricane poor, and the preeminence of foreign affairs developments in the Middle East is pushing him to the ‘tougher’ Trump.
Jose is one of a tiny two percent of voters: he has not made his mind up yet
Some undecideds I have quizzed in recent days were swayed by the furor over comments about Puerto Rico at Madison Square Garden. But the effect was cancelled out by outrage at President Biden’s comments calling Trump supporters ‘garbage’.
Our modeling for the Daily Mail shows we expect undecided voters to split 50-50 between Harris and Trump.
But if one candidate gets an edge – like Trump has with Jose – then where the support falls from the most stubbornly undecided voters will matter.
5. GENERATION GAZA: MCKENNA
Importance to election: 5/10
States most important in: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
When I first met McKenna in the cavernous main train station in Philadelphia she was livid with the Democrats. Biden was still in the race, and she felt that he had been complicit in ‘genocide’ in Gaza.
A University of Pennsylvania student, she had participated in recent protests over the Middle East and felt that she had no choice but to vote third party – or to not vote at all.
Roll forward to when I called her last week, and she is now in the Harris camp.
‘Kamala’s standpoint on Gaza is still very frustrating and not what I want to see from leadership. still sending money to Israel for mass destruction, and it’s not cool’, she tells me.
‘But ‘I still will vote for Kamala because Trump’s whole abortion Project 2025 thing is terrible’.
McKenna participated in recent protests over the Middle East and felt that she had no choice but to vote third party – or to not vote at al
In her heart of hearts, she still wants to vote for the Socialist candidate. But ‘realistically I don’t think they have a fighting chance’. She thinks Harris is the person she must back to stop Trump’s ‘blatant racism and facets of misogyny’.
A handful of these pro-Gaza students are still angry enough with Harris for her support for Israel that they will not vote for her. There have been three of them in recent focus groups I have run in Phoenix, Arizona and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Whether Harris can deliver the formerly disenchanted students to her camp will have an impact on the race where margins are razor-thin.
6. NON-WHITE SWITCHERS: GABRIEL
Importance to election: 10/10
States most important in: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan
Gabriel is a mixed-race factory worker in Tennille, Georgia. His words have stuck with me throughout the campaign.
‘If you think white men have a problem with black women, wait until you hear what black men think.’
He thinks African-American men across Georgia, and the rest of the country dislike Harris, do not think she is strong enough, and are ‘waking up’ and becoming more likely to support Republicans.
He is one of them. ‘We see through it’, he tells me of the Democrats, who have long relied on non-white support, ‘They just pander to us. Even on TikTok or Facebook, it used to be like, ‘Oh, you’ll become Uncle Tom,’ ‘You’ll become white’ if you vote Republican. But people are now seeing that Democrat ways don’t help and that Donald Trump actually did more to help them out than what the Democrats claim to do.’
He sees distance between the Democrats and his community on transgender issues, support for the nuclear family, and welfare. He thinks they have swapped his vote for the votes of white women. ‘I think the Democrats are OK with trading that off for [white] women, to have all the women votes instead.’
Gabriel is a mixed-race factory worker in Tennille, Georgia. His words have stuck with me throughout the campaign
Gabriel thinks there is a shy non-white vote for Trump out there. What I see suggests the same. Though Harris still leads decisively, Trump has made inroads with Hispanic and black voters, set to win 45 percent and 15 percent of them respectively in our latest Daily Mail poll.
In a focus group in Detroit this week, the black and Asian voters were backing Trump, the white women backing Harris. One 31-year-old black woman, Sheree, told me she is voting Trump because he was better on the economy, and that she ‘does not want to be worrying about my child having to share a school restroom with a boy.’
Voters like Gabriel and Sheree could be Trump’s ace. If he cannot mobilize White Trump Man at the same pace that Harris can turn out the Selzer Ladies, then attrition amongst non-white voters in traditional Democrat groups to Trump could get him over the line.
That’s why I think the Non-white Switcher to Trump is the most important group in this election.
