The budget needed to field a competitive college basketball roster seems to be the only thing in the world trending up right now, and the beautiful consequence is that most of the best players with eligibility remaining are returning to school. It is in that uncertain world, in the wake of Florida’s national championship win at Houston’s expense, that we bring you this too-early look at next season’s best teams.
You may notice that there are players listed in the projected ’25-26 rosters below who are also showing up in NBA mock drafts, most of which are projected second-round picks. In the past, most of those players would be gone. Now? Many will return because they would be sacrificing dollars to go to the NBA. Yes, that is where we are right now: High-major teams are paying better than most second-round contracts and definitely better than a two-way deal.
Of course, the ongoing movement in the portal (which closes to new entries on April 22, though players already in by that date can wait longer to decide on their next school) adds another degree of difficulty to this exercise. You’ll also notice some spots that I’m just assuming will be filled by a quality portal addition, based on need and the history of that program. With all that in mind, it’s not easy to find 25 rankable teams right now, but let’s get weird and go for it. Here’s your super-duper-early Top 25.
1. Purdue
Projected starters: Braden Smith, C.J. Cox, Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Oscar Cluff (transfer)
Notable returners: Daniel Jacobsen, Gicarri Harris, Raleigh Burgess
Other newcomers: Antoine West
Talent plus roster continuity is a winning formula, and no team has a better combination of that at this moment than Purdue. The Boilermakers’ perimeter depth took a hit with the recent departures of Myles Colvin (to Wake Forest) and Camden Heide (Texas), but this will be the only team returning a first-team AP All-American in Braden Smith, not to mention an honorable mention in forward Trey Kaufman-Renn. When Houston prepped for Purdue in the Sweet 16, the Cougars’ coaches took to calling Smith, Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer “Stockton, Malone and Hornacek.”
Coach Matt Painter added a veteran big who is an elite rebounder in South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff, who was a starter on the Washington State team that won an NCAA Tournament game in 2024. Daniel Jacobsen could emerge as the next star Purdue big and could provide the rim protection this season’s group really missed without Zach Edey. It’s also possible Purdue could add one perimeter player or more, which would strengthen the Boilers’ preseason No. 1 case.
2. Florida
Projected starters: Portal Player TBD, Denzel Aberdeen, Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu
Notable returners: Micah Handlogten, Sam Alexis, Urban Klavzar
Other newcomers: Alex Lloyd, CJ Ingram (freshman)
Returning the entire frontcourt is a great place to start for the national champions. They already had the deepest frontcourt in college basketball and will retain that title and add “best frontcourt in college basketball” to the superlatives. (And even if Alex Condon gets drafted, this is still a really good group.) The assumption is the Gators will get a star guard out of the portal. The sales pitch is pretty easy: Come be our next Walter Clayton Jr. Denzel Aberdeen was one of the best bench guards in the country and should take a leap. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Thomas Haugh and Condon turned into 2026 first-rounders.
3. Houston
Projected starters: Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp, Terrance Arceneaux, Chris Cenac Jr. (freshman), Joseph Tugler
Notable returners: Mercy Miller, Ramon Walker
Other newcomers: Isiah Harwell, Kingston Flemings, Bryce Jackson, Kalifa Sakho (transfer)
Milos Uzan likely will be on the fence about staying or going, and if he leaves, expect Houston to grab a veteran point guard to allow freshman Kingston Flemings the proper time to marinate in the program. This roster will be more reliant on freshmen than any of Kelvin Sampson’s others, but it still has one of the better returning veteran cores. Expect JoJo Tugler to expand his game and be one of the most valuable bigs in the country. Emanuel Sharp could make that familiar Houston leap in which a guard goes from a very good player to an All-American.
4. Louisville
Projected starters: Mikel Brown Jr. (freshman), Ryan Conwell (transfer), Isaac McKneely (transfer), Kasean Pryor, Aly Khalifa
Notable returners: James Scott, Khani Rooths
Other newcomers: Adrian Wooley (transfer), Sananda Fru
Many teams at the top of these rankings are here mostly because of roster continuity. Here’s the team that has won the transfer portal so far. Head coach Pat Kelsey has earned some trust after building an entire roster from scratch in his first year and coming away with a winner. There is some familiarity back, too, with both Kasean Pryor and Aly Khalifa, who transferred in a year ago only to miss most — or all, in Khalifa’s case — of the season.
Khalifa was one of the best passing bigs in the country at BYU, and a slimmed-down version will take the floor for Louisville. The backcourt is stacked and talented: Ryan Conwell was one of the best guards in the Big East at Xavier; Adrian Wooley is getting NBA buzz; Isaac McKneely is one of best shooters in the country; Mikel Brown Jr. is a five-star freshman. If Pryor can play at the level he was starting to flash before his injury and Kelsey can microwave the chemistry, this could hit big.
5. Michigan
Projected starters: Elliot Cadeau (transfer), Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gayle, Yaxel Lendeborg (transfer), Morez Johnson (transfer)
Notable returners: LJ Cason
Other newcomers: Trey McKenney, Winters Grady
Dusty May is off to a terrific start in the transfer portal, especially up front with Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson. Those two give him a semi-comparable frontline to what he just had in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. Lendeborg has the perimeter skills to play the Wolf role, and Johnson is more of an old-school big like Goldin, although he scores via the hustle categories rather than a strictly back-to-the-basket game.
Elliot Cadeau offers some promise in a new system because his vision and passing can be elite, though some may be worried by Cadeau’s shooting track record (28.1 percent from 3 in two years at North Carolina). Adding more shooting out of the portal could help, but the return of Nimari Burnett at least gives the Wolverines a proven deep threat. Roddy Gayle’s quest for consistency could control Michigan’s ceiling. And the one big question mark for the next two months will be whether Lendeborg shows; his stock could get to the point where he stays in the NBA Draft.
6. BYU
Projected starters: Portal Player TBD, Portal Player TBD, Richie Saunders, AJ Dybantsa (freshman), Keba Keita
Notable returners: Dawson Baker, Mihailo Boskovic
Other newcomers: Dominique Diomande (transfer), Xavion Staton
It’s possible point guard Egor Demin returns for a sophomore season. If that happens, I’ll probably be moving the Cougars up a couple of spots. Demin is a projected first-rounder but one who probably would benefit from another year of seasoning. One thing is clear: BYU donors have made a sizable investment in hoops. Combine that with how fun it looked to play in Kevin Young’s system during the former NBA assistant’s first year as a college head coach, and you’d expect the Cougars to attract some talented guards to fill those backcourt spots.
Obviously the headliner here is AJ Dybantsa, who is seen as a surefire 2026 lottery pick. Dybantsa gives Young some lineup flexibility because he’s a 6-9 super-athlete with perimeter skills, and he’s entering a program with a proven star already on the roster in Richie Saunders. The notable returners listed above are both good enough to start — Dawson Baker at the two and Mihailo Boskovic at the four. If the Cougars can just add one more proven guard, one of those could take the other starting spot and still give you a contender on paper.
7. Michigan State
Projected starters: Jeremy Fears, Jase Richardson, Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper
Notable returners: Jesse McCulloch
Other newcomers: Cam Ward, Jordan Scott
The current projected starting lineup played only 13 minutes together in 2024-25, per CBB Analytics. It might be unrealistic to play Coen Carr on the wing and not at the 4, but this would be a terrific defensive lineup. (And, for the record, that group was plus-12 in those 13 minutes on the floor.) The Spartans clearly need to add some shooting, but they clearly needed shooting this past year and they still won the Big Ten.
The big question mark here is Jase Richardson. He would typically be someone I’d project as leaving, but the gut feeling from a few who know that program way better than myself is that he’ll be back. Returning five key contributors from a Big Ten champion is a nice starting spot. If Tom Izzo can add some quality depth on the perimeter through the portal, he could have himself another conference champ.
8. Auburn
Projected starters: Tahaad Pettiford, Portal TBD, Chad Baker-Mazara, Keyshawn Hall (transfer), Portal TBD
Notable returners: Jahki Howard
Other newcomers: Sebastian Williams-Adams, Kaden Magwood, Simon Walker, Abdul Bashir
Both Tahaad Pettiford and Keyshawn Hall are preseason All-American candidates in my eyes. Hall is built to get buckets and should thrive in the spots Auburn will put him in playing out of the flex. He just averaged 18.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.4 assists with decent efficiency numbers at UCF, and now he’ll be surrounded by better players, which should help him in the efficiency category.
Pettiford likely would have been a real threat to leave a few years ago, but in college basketball’s 2025 model, it makes a lot of sense for him to return. If he has the kind of season I think he might have, he could be a lottery pick in 2026. That leaves head coach Bruce Pearl in a really good starting position, and based on Pearl’s ability to find portal additions who fit his system, this roster could be one that ends up back on the top line next year, especially if Pettiford or Hall pull a Johni Broome and elevate to national player of the year consideration.
9. UConn
Projected starters: Silas Demary Jr. (transfer), Braylon Mullins (freshman), Solo Ball, Jaylin Stewart, Tarris Reed
Notable returners: Jayden Ross
Other newcomers: Darius Adams, Eric Reibe, Jacob Furphy
This is another roster I could be underselling, especially considering the flashes Solo Ball and Tarris Reed produced this year. Another season in the system for each could produce better consistency. Silas Demary Jr. gives UConn the Tristen Newton replacement it lacked this year, a big guard who can run the offense and also generate his own. It’s possible that Alex Karaban returns as well, and if he doesn’t, UConn may use the money set aside for his possible return to land his replacement.
10. Duke
Projected starters: Cayden Boozer (freshman), Caleb Foster, Isaiah Evans, Cameron Boozer (freshman), Patrick Ngongba
Notable returners: Darren Harris, Maliq Brown
Other newcomers: Shelton Henderson, Nikolas Khamenia
Duke could have some roster retention work to do here. Isaiah Evans is in demand as a hired gun, and Shelton Henderson was recruited by former Duke assistant Jai Lucas and may decide he wants to go play for Lucas at Miami. What will always be true is that Duke, the betting favorite to claim 2026 title when the sun came up on Tuesday, should have one of the most talented rosters in college hoops.
Cameron Boozer is not Cooper Flagg, but he is a ready-made star for this level with a low-post game that’s still very relevant in college hoops. It’ll take some style adjustments, but the Blue Devils will likely play through Boozer and sophomore-to-be Patrick Ngongba. Head coach Jon Scheyer will again have great positional size but may not have quite as much length and shot blocking on the defensive interior. Adding a few more veteran guards, even if they’re bench guys, would be beneficial.
11. Arizona
Projected starters: Jaden Bradley, Portal Player TBD, Anthony Dell’Orso, Koa Peat (freshman), Motiejus Krivas
Notable returners: Tobe Awaka
Other newcomers: Dwayne Aristode, Bryce James
Even with the loss of Henri Veesaar (now at North Carolina), the Wildcats have one of the best and deepest frontcourts in the country with three startable players in Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka.
Peat is versatile enough to slide to the three and allow coach Tommy Lloyd to go with a giant frontline, but he’s probably better for the offense as a playmaking four. Motiejus Krivas was probably about to have a breakout campaign before a foot injury ended his season in December. Lloyd’s priority now is finding a Caleb Love replacement. The quality of that eventual add could determine whether the Wildcats stay this high, but banking on Lloyd fielding a top-10ish outfit is almost a given at this point.
12. Texas Tech
Projected starters: Christian Anderson, Kevin Overton, Portal TBD, JT Toppin, Federiko Federiko
Notable returners: Eemeli Yalaho
Other newcomers: None
Head coach Grant McCasland has a lot of work to do in the portal, but if JT Toppin does return, he at least has an All-American to build around. Christian Anderson will take over at point guard and should turn into one of the top guards in the country. It’s not easy to crack the rotation as a freshman guard in college hoops, and it’s even harder to make 70 3s at a 38 percent clip as a freshman; Anderson did both with the coolness of a veteran.
Kevin Overton had some moments in the NCAA Tournament when you could see how he’ll become a consistent double-digit scorer once his confidence arrives. McCasland needs to grab a few shooters, but the main portal priority is finding another chess piece like Darrion Williams. His decision to transfer hurt. Make a few smart portal grabs, which Texas Tech has done as well as anyone, and McCasland will have himself another team that could go deep in the tournament.
13. Alabama
Projected starters: Aden Holloway, Latrell Wrightsell, Derrion Reid, Jarin Stevenson, Aiden Sherrell
Notable returners: Houston Mallette
Other newcomers: Jalil Bethea (transfer), London Jemison, Davion Hannah, Amari Allen, Taylor Bol Bowen (transfer), Noah Williamson (transfer)
This feels a little low for the Crimson Tide because there’s a good core returning and head coach Nate Oats is on one heck of a run, but it feels like Oats is missing a star now that Mark Sears is finally graduating. If Labaron Philon returns, maybe he’s that guy. Aden Holloway could also become that dude.
But those aren’t the only two intriguing players here who could be in for breakouts, especially in the sophomore class with Aiden Sherrell and Derrion Reid. Miami transfer Jalil Bethea could also thrive in a new spot. Depth is not an issue, and the battle for spots in the preseason could be healthy. The speed with which this group develops chemistry and finds that star could determine where the Crimson Tide fall on the spectrum between contender and pretender.
14. Iowa State
Projected starters: Tamin Lipsey, Nate Heise, Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson, Blake Buchanan (transfer)
Notable returners: None
Other newcomers: Eric Mulder (transfer), Mason Williams (transfer), Jamarion Batemon, Killyan Toure, Xzavion Mitchell, Dominykas Pieta
This could be a little low for the Cyclones considering the proven commodities coming back. My one concern is whether they’ll find a dynamic scoring guard to replace Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert. Once Gilbert’s role faded late in the season, the Cyclones were no longer the elite outfit they had been in 2023-24 and early this season.
They could still add that player in the portal, moving Nate Heise back to more of a sixth man role. That would likely elevate this team to top-10 status. But maybe it’s just time for a slight tactical shift, leaning into the star power of Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic. There’s still a lot to like here, and the Blake Buchanan addition makes sense because he comes from a program (Virginia) that T.J. Otzelberger has long admired.
15. Kansas
Projected starters: Darryn Peterson (freshman), Elmarko Jackson, Jayden Dawson (transfer), Tre White (transfer), Flory Bidunga
Notable returners: Bryson Tiller, Jamari McDowell
Other newcomers: Samis Calderon
It feels like Kansas is being more intentional in the transfer portal, going for players who can be complementary pieces instead of solely chasing name recognition. Maybe that comes from the luxury of confidence that Darryn Peterson can be a star. Bill Self appears to be doing for Peterson what Jon Scheyer did for Cooper Flagg, built a roster around his stud freshman. Convincing Flory Bidunga to return could be the biggest win of the early offseason. For KU fans, watching Bidunga elsewhere may have felt similar to the experience of watching Zuby Ejiofor thrive at St. John’s.
Peterson and Bidunga have the potential to be an elite pick-and-roll tandem. And Kansas could go back to playing more like Self played the year he started KJ Adams at center and surrounded him with guards and big wings, mostly ignoring post-ups. That 2022-23 team was the last No. 1 seed Self produced. He still needs more perimeter depth, and one more starter-level guy at the three/four probably wouldn’t hurt, but it’s starting to come together.
16. North Carolina
Projected starters: Seth Trimble, Drake Powell, Jonathan Powell (transfer), Caleb Wilson (freshman), Henri Veesaar (transfer)
Notable returners: Ven-Allen Lubin
Other newcomers: Derek Dixon, Isaiah Denis
This will be a prove-it year for Hubert Davis, who saw the weakness of his previous team — the frontcourt — and has turned it into a strength. Caleb Wilson is a lottery-level talent with elite defensive capabilities, and Veesaar is another player who projects as a pro. So UNC goes from no pros up front to two likely ones. Now the worry is in the backcourt: The cupboard is not bare with Seth Trimble and Drake Powell returning, but it’d be smart to go get at least one proven perimeter player from the portal, preferably at point guard.
17. St. John’s
Projected starters: Portal Player TBD, Joson Sanon (transfer), Simeon Wilcher, Bryce Hopkins (transfer), Zuby Ejiofor
Notable returners: Vince Iwuchukwu, Ruben Prey, Lefteris Liotopoulos
Other newcomers: None
If Rick Pitino lands a stud guard, I’ll probably be inclined to move St. John’s into the top 10 because it’s Pitino. Sanon will likely benefit from his coaching and skill development and could become the next portal wonder — and he’s a guard who can make a 3, a weapon the Red Storm did not always have in 2024-25.
If Bryce Hopkins can stay healthy, that’s one of the better frontcourts in the country. Losing Big East player of the year RJ Luis was strange, but it is an opportunity to try to modernize by filling the perimeter spots with guys who can live beyond the 3-point line and in the midrange. Find guys who can do that and guard like this past bunch, and Pitino will be battling UConn for the Big East title.
18. Kentucky
Projected starters: Jaland Lowe (transfer) Jasper Johnson (freshman), Otega Oweh, Kam Williams (transfer), Brandon Garrison
Notable returners: Collin Chandler, Trent Noah, Travis Perry
Other newcomers: Malachi Moreno, Acaden Lewis, Mouhamed Dioubate (transfer)
Mark Pope loves to play through his fours and fives on the perimeter, using those guys to initiate the zoom actions and finding cutters. Brandon Garrison has at least played in the system for a year, but there was a drop-off when he came on the floor and Amari Williams took a seat. It’ll be interesting to see whether Pope makes any stylistic changes to his offense based on the personnel.
Jaland Lowe is much more of a ball-dominant guard than Lamont Butler was, and maybe we’ll see a higher frequency of ball screens with Lowe at point guard. While Pope has plenty of depth already, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to add a few veterans. This is a much younger roster than his first one. The Cats likely will not be as good early as they were last year, but there will probably be more in-season growth, because last year’s group came pretty ready-made, despite an offseason of changes.
19. Creighton
Projected starters: Nik Graves (transfer), Josh Dix (transfer), Jasen Green, Jackson McAndrew, Owen Freeman (transfer)
Notable returners: Fedor Zugic, Isaac Traudt
Other newcomers: Hudson Greer
At the Players Era Festival in November this past year, I was convinced Creighton wasn’t an NCAA Tournament team. The lesson? Never underestimate coach Greg McDermott and his ability to get a team to improve. I love the addition of Josh Dix, one of my favorite perimeter scorers in the portal. He and fellow Iowa transfer Owen Freeman should thrive in McDermott’s offense. Hudson Greer fits McDermott’s system as well.
The key will be whether Nik Graves, who averaged 17.5 points and 4.3 assists at Charlotte, can handle the move up in levels. McDermott has had a good run of point guards, and the Bluejays need that one to hit. Also, trying to play defense without big man Ryan Kalkbrenner no longer around to fix everything around the rim will be an adjustment. This team should be able to score, but there are definitely defensive concerns. (See Iowa’s 167th-ranked defense.)
20. UCLA
Projected starters: Donovan Dent (transfer), Skyy Clark, Eric Dailey, Tyler Bilodeau, Xavier Booker (transfer)
Notable returners: Trent Perry
Other newcomers: Steven Jamerson (transfer), Jamar Brown (transfer)
Donovan Dent is one of the top transfer portal prizes thus far and should solidify things at point guard, a position that has been a little shaky since the graduation of Tyger Campbell. I don’t love the Xavier Booker fit. He doesn’t seem like a Mick Cronin player, but maybe a change of scenery will get him to play to the hype he once had. If he’s a miss, the Bruins can downsize to the Eric Dailey-Tyler Bilodeau frontcourt. Those two and Dent make for one of the better trios in college hoops.
21. Illinois
Projected starters: Kylan Boswell, Portal Player TBD, Will Riley, Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic
Notable returners: Jake Davis
Other newcomers: Brandon Lee, Keaton Wagler
The Ivisic brothers together could be fun to watch on offense. Defensively? I’ve got some questions as to how that’ll work, and maybe Brad Underwood will play them together only rarely. But both are awesome offensive talents, and Underwood could get creative with the system he builds around them.
Will Riley could end up leaving for the NBA, but if not, he should become a focal point. A starting-caliber guard and some power forward help is expected via the portal, and there’s already enough talent here to believe this will be a team worth ranking once the roster is set.
22. Missouri
Projected starters: Anthony Robinson, Sebastian Mack, Trent Pierce, Mark Mitchell, Jevon Porter (transfer)
Notable returners: Trent Burns, TO Barrett, Peyton Marshall
Other newcomers: Luke Northweather (transfer), Aaron Rowe, Nicholas Randall
This might be a tad low for the Tigers, maybe a product of recency bias from their one-and-done tourney exit. It’s entirely possible Anthony Robinson turns into an absolute star as a junior, and I really like Sebastian Mack in the Tony Perkins role. The wild card is, what kind of productivity do the Tigers get out of the center position. Jevon Porter, who becomes the third Porter brother to play for the Tigers, was an efficient scorer on a middle-of-the-pack WCC team, but he can shoot the 3.
Trent Burns, who is 7-foot-5 and redshirted this past year, can also shoot the 3 and Mizzou staff is excited about his potential, but he looks like a strong wind could take him down. Then there’s Peyton Marshall, a 7-footer on the other end of the weight spectrum who couldn’t crack the rotation as a freshman. The Tigers could play small with Mark Mitchell at the five, but the best SEC teams have been big up front, and Mizzou could have one of the tallest teams in the country if those centers are playable.
23. Arkansas
Projected starters: Darius Acuff Jr. (freshman), DJ Wagner, Billy Richmond, Karter Knox, Trevon Brazile
Notable returners: None
Other newcomers: Meleek Thomas, Isaiah Sealy
John Calipari is always going to have talent, and he’ll add two more five-stars in Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas. For the Razorbacks to play to this ranking, guys like Billy Richmond and Karter Knox must improve, but they both seemed to be trending upwards as the season ended. The needs for this team in the portal are shooting and frontcourt depth. Thomas is a gunner who could provide some of the shooting, but it’d be good to add at least one proven perimeter scorer, and then Calipari needs a big who can defend and rebound.
24. Ohio State
Projected starters: Bruce Thornton, John Mobley, Devin Royal, Sean Stewart, Christoph Tilly (transfer)
Notable returners: None
Other newcomers: Gabe Cupps (transfer), A’mare Bynum, Dorian Jones
This team might look out of place considering the Buckeyes return a core that just went 17-15, but they did finish this year No. 37 at KenPom and had stretches where they looked like a Top 25 team. Love the Bruce Thornton and John Mobley backcourt. Adding Christoph Tilly from Santa Clara solidifies the center position after a year of riding the Aaron Bradshaw roller coaster. It will be important for Jake Diebler to prove he’s the coach to lead this program after a slightly disappointing first full year, but retaining a strong core from a top-40 team will get you ranked in this exercise.
25. Tennessee
Projected starters: Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Portal Player TBD, Portal Player TBD, Jaylen Carey (transfer), Felix Okpara
Notable returners: Cade Phillips, JP Estrella
Other newcomers: Amari Evans, DeWayne Brown, Troy Henderson
The Vols are set up front with two guys off the bench in Cade Phillips and JP Estrella who could end up winning starting spots. Estrella, who missed most of 2024-25, has a chance to give the Vols some inside scoring they haven’t had in a while. Ja’Kobi Gillespie (from Maryland) was a very important transfer signing. Now all of the attention turns to the two and three spots. Considering Rick Barnes has had Dalton Knecht and Chaz Lanier back-to-back, I’d imagine there’s a really good wing out there who will be persuaded to come be the next one.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Ed Zurga, Rey Del Rio, Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
