There have been a sprinkling of signings so far this offseason, but with MLB’s annual Winter Meetings just days away, the floodgates should open soon.
Teams and agents are hoping to reach — or get close to — the finish line before jumping on planes Sunday to head to Dallas. The top of the free-agent market has been active, with contract proposals and concepts exchanged between teams and players, but everyone seems to be waiting for the big stars to sign before the dominoes fall to the rest of the class. While we wait for those players — Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso, Max Fried, Willy Adames and Anthony Santander — to make their decisions, I thought it would be fun to play matchmaker and propose a free-agent fit for each of the 30 teams.
Please note: Although I give contract estimates, these are not predictions, nor am I implying that any of these players are close to signing with these specific teams. (These are simply pairings that I think could make sense at this point for both sides, the player and team.)
But that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun debating potential moves until the hot stove warms up. In the comments, feel free to share your own free-agent matches or let me know which ones of mine you like or don’t like.
Athletics — Eloy Jiménez, DH (1 year, $7 million)
The Athletics surprised the baseball world by dishing out $67 million to land Luis Severino — now, what will they do for an encore? Jiménez could be a low-risk, high-reward move for the A’s as they begin their Sacramento era. He has dealt with injuries throughout his career and is only a DH (and pinch hitter) at this point. In 2022, he hit .295 with 16 home runs. In 2023, he hit .272 with 18 home runs. Last season, he hit just .238 with six homers; he played in 98 games and was worth minus-0.7 WAR, according to Baseball Reference. The $43 million contract he signed at 22 has expired; now 28, can Jiménez stay healthy and get hitting again? (Only once has he played in more than 120 games in a season — as a rookie in 2019, when he hit 31 bombs.)
Arizona Diamondbacks — Christian Walker, 1B (3 years, $72 million)
Several teams could use Walker — namely the Mariners, Yankees and Mets (if they don’t bring back Pete Alonso). He has won a Gold Glove and supplied 25- to 35-homer power in each of the past three seasons with the Diamondbacks. It would be devastating for them to lose Walker; he is such an important part of that team. It won’t be easy for the D-Backs to keep him, but it’s a priority if they want to get back to the postseason in 2025.
Willy Adames finished 10th in the NL MVP voting. (Matt Blewett / Imagn Images)
Atlanta Braves — Willy Adames, SS (6 years, $150 million)
The Braves are focused on augmenting the top of their rotation, but if they aren’t able to bring back Max Fried or sign another top-of-the-rotation starter, then pivoting to the position player who best fits their roster makes sense — and Adames would be an ideal fit at shortstop. With Matt Olson at first, Ozzie Albies at second, Austin Riley at third and Adames at short, Atlanta would have the best two-way infield in the sport. How would you like that, Braves fans? Incumbent shortstop Orlando Arcia could switch to a utility role that allowed him to play all over the diamond. Adames, who has averaged 29 homers per season over the past three years, would lengthen the Braves’ lineup even more.
Baltimore Orioles — Sean Manaea, LHP (3 years, $68 million)
The Orioles are playing at the top of the starting pitching market — Corbin Burnes, Fried, Roki Sasaki and others — but if that fails, Manaea would be a solid backup plan after his breakout season with the Mets. Manaea went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.084 WHIP and 184 strikeouts in 181 2/3 innings. His fastball run value ranked in the 99th percentile and his extension was in the 96th percentile. Batters hit .167 against his four-seamer, .193 against his sweeper and .201 against his sinker.
Boston Red Sox — Max Fried, LHP (6 years, $174 million)
The Red Sox have been aggressive this offseason and I’ll be shocked if they don’t land one of the top free-agent pitchers in this class. Although I keep thinking Fried will go back to the Braves, I could see the Red Sox being the highest bidder and landing him. Fried is a big-game pitcher and his 58 percent ground-ball rate would be effective at Fenway Park. He posted a 3.25 ERA last season in 29 starts (174 1/3 innings) and was worth 3.5 WAR. He’s pitched to a 3.07 ERA over his eight-year career.
Chicago Cubs — Carlos Estévez, RHP (3 years, $33 million)
After adding Matthew Boyd to their rotation, the Cubs need to bolster their bullpen and Estévez would be a good fit. He’s coming off a strong year in which he posted a 2.38 ERA over 34 appearances with 20 saves for the Angels before being dealt to the Phillies at the trade deadline. He put up a 2.57 ERA over 20 appearances with six saves for Philadelphia. Batters hit under .200 against all of his arsenal, including his four-seamer, slider and changeup.
Chicago White Sox — Alex Verdugo, OF (2 years, $26 million)
The White Sox are going to have to grind to improve their everyday lineup and at the same time sign some short-term free agents whom they can deal at the trade deadline for prospects. They might have to overpay some free agents to get them to come to Chicago after a historically bad season. Verdugo is coming off a subpar season in which he hit just .233 with 13 home runs and an 83 OPS+. However, he’s only 28 and has hit .272/.328/.414 for his career. With Chicago, he could play every day and restore his value enough to be a trade piece come July.
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Cincinnati Reds — Joc Pederson, DH (2 years, $26 million)
The Reds’ lineup could use more power. Pederson, who can play the outfield corners on occasion along with DHing, would fit with their roster infrastructure. He batted .275/.393/.515 (151 OPS+) last season with 23 home runs over 367 at-bats. He was worth 2.9 WAR. Pederson basically just plays against right-handed pitchers, but what a weapon. His extensive postseason experience would also help this relatively young team that’s still learning how to win.
Where will Shane Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner, land? (Lindsey Wasson / Associated Press)
Cleveland Guardians — Shane Bieber, RHP (2 years, $36 million)
The Guardians’ biggest roster deficiency is in the rotation. Re-signing their former ace would address the huge hole atop their rotation, if he can return from Tommy John surgery and pitch at his accustomed level. Bieber, who made only two starts for Cleveland last season, is not expected to return until next June at the earliest, but if the two-time All-Star finds his form, he has a chance to be the best value signing of this free-agent class.
Colorado Rockies — Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (1 year, $8 million plus incentives)
Goldschmidt’s phenomenal career is winding down as age and decline have arrived. However, he remains a strong, quiet leader in the clubhouse, and he would be invaluable in helping the Rockies’ young players develop. Finishing his career playing half his games at Coors Field wouldn’t hurt — and it could help him hang on for a couple more years. The best role at this point for Goldschmidt would be playing some first base and DHing on a part-time basis. Last season with St. Louis, he hit .245/.302/.414 (98 OPS+) with 22 home runs and was worth 1.3 WAR.
Detroit Tigers – Walker Buehler, RHP (2 years, $42 million with player opt-out)
The Tigers could use a veteran starter to help solidify their rotation, and Buehler, who comes with a history of postseason success, would be a good fit. After two Tommy John surgeries, the 30-year-old remains a high medical risk, but one that’s worth taking given his top-of-the-rotation talent when he’s pitching at his peak. His impressive postseason performance should get him at least $42 million in guaranteed money, but he also deserves an opt-out clause to go back on the market next offseason if he stays healthy and pitches well. Buehler posted an inflated 5.38 ERA over 16 regular-season starts last season, but his 10-shutout-inning-stretch over the NLCS and World Series showed how dominant he can be when healthy.
Houston Astros — Alex Bregman, 3B (7 years, $185.5 million)
Bregman has been one of the Astros’ faces of the franchise since they drafted him with the second overall pick in 2015. He’s played in 99 postseason games for Houston, hitting 19 home runs and driving in 54 runs over 20 playoff series. This past season, Bregman was worth 4.1 WAR despite dealing with nagging injuries. He hit 26 homers and had a 118 OPS+. He’s a flat-out winner and one of the best in the game in terms of strike-zone awareness. He has a career slash line of .272/.366/.483 (132 OPS+) over nine seasons and will turn 31 in March. We’ll see if the Astros can keep him, but just as a fan of the game, I hope he’s able to play his entire career with Houston.
Kansas City Royals — Clay Holmes, RHP (2 years, $18.5 million)
Acquiring Jonathan India from the Reds filled a huge hole at the top of the Royals’ lineup; now they need to bolster the back end of their bullpen and Holmes could be a good match. Holmes lost the closer job last season with the Yankees — he had 13 blown saves in 40 save opportunities — but he was effective in high-leverage moments as a set-up reliever, which looks like his best role. He posted a 3.14 ERA over 67 appearances this year in his age-31 season. Using Holmes to set up Lucas Erceg or potentially sharing the closer role with him would make sense.
Kenley Jansen ranks fourth on the all-time saves leaderboard with 447. (Eric Canha / Imagn Images)
Los Angeles Angels — Kenley Jansen, RHP (1 year, $16 million)
The Angels have already dropped $80 million this offseason on four free agents (Yusei Kikuchi, Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks, Kevin Newman) and they might as well keep going to improve a team that lost 99 games last season. They could use another back-end reliever, and Jansen, a veteran of 15 major-league seasons, continues to perform at a high level. He had 27 saves last season with the Red Sox, posting a 3.29 ERA over 54 2/3 innings. The Angels could smartly deploy the 37-year-old in the first half of the season and then, when they likely fall out of the race, deal him for prospects at the trade deadline to help their rebuild.
Los Angeles Dodgers — Teoscar Hernández, OF (3 years, $75 million)
In the early going this offseason, the Dodgers have made a free-agent splash, landing Blake Snell on a five-year contract. Next up could be a reunion with Hernández, who posted a 137 OPS+ for them last season. He mashed 33 homers, drove in 99 runs, stole 12 bases and was worth 4.3 WAR. Hernández, 32, could get more money and a longer-term contract elsewhere, but with a chance to win more championships as part of this star-studded group, he might be willing to stay put and take a three-year deal in this range.
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Miami Marlins — Caleb Ferguson, LHP (1 year, $6 million)
Ferguson, 28, logged a 4.64 ERA and 3.74 FIP over 62 appearances split between the Yankees and Astros. He struck out 67 in 54 1/3 innings (11.1 strikeouts per nine). The Marlins are not expected to be players in free agency, but Ferguson could be an exception because of his age and the trade value he could have at the deadline if he gets off to a good start. What contender isn’t looking for lefty relievers in July?
Milwaukee Brewers — Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP (2 years, $32 million)
The Brewers often hit on under-the-radar veteran starting pitchers and Sugano could fit the bill this offseason for them. The 35-year-old righty went 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA last season in Nippon Professional Baseball. He threw 156 2/3 innings and allowed only 16 walks and six home runs. He has 2.43 ERA over 12 NPB seasons. Sugano knows how to pitch, adding and subtracting and dotting the corners.
Minnesota Twins — Jurickson Profar, LF (3 years, $39 million)
The Twins are looking to improve on the outfield corners and signing Profar would make sense if they can work around their payroll situation and free up dollars. The versatile 31-year-old was one of the best value signings last offseason. He hit .280 with 24 home runs, 29 doubles and 10 stolen bases for San Diego, and finished second in the National League with a .380 on-base percentage. He plays with high energy and enthusiasm, and it rubs off on his teammates. I like the fit with the Twins mainly because he hit .300 with an .885 OPS against left-handed pitching; their outfield corners struggled against lefties last season.
New York Yankees — Jack Flaherty, RHP (3 years, $52 million)
The Yankees seem to be a perfect fit for Flaherty, whom they came close to acquiring at last season’s trade deadline. They ultimately nixed the potential deal over medical concerns about his lower back. However, if they are comfortable with his medical records and health risk this time, a deal with the righty still makes sense to bolster their rotation depth — and this way, the Yankees won’t have to part with prospects to get him. Flaherty, 29, went 13-7 last season with a 3.17 ERA over 28 starts. He struck out 194 in 162 innings and was worth 3.1 WAR.
Juan Soto, the man of the hour. (David Dermer / Imagn Images)
New York Mets — Juan Soto, RF (15 years, $622 million)
I debated putting Soto with the Yankees here, but since I’ve done that in a previous free-agent matchmaking article, I went with the Mets this time around. I still believe the Mets will end up offering Soto the most money and the most years; what I don’t know is whether the Yankees will come close to matching them. With Soto going through the process of eliminating teams from the pool that’s bid on him and likely nearing a decision, the Mets remain a real possibility. A career .421 OBP player, Soto has smacked 76 home runs over the past two years and driven in 109 RBIs each season. He had a 178 OPS+ and was worth 7.9 WAR in his standout season in New York. He shined on the biggest stage and in the biggest moments, including in the ALCS with his Game 5, 10th-inning homer that propelled the Yankees to the World Series. He has one of the best hit tools the game has ever seen and he should age well. He’ll be the highest paid player in baseball history in terms of net present value when he signs his next contract. Now, the entire baseball world waits for his decision.
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Philadelphia Phillies — Tanner Scott, LHP (4 years, $60 million)
The Phillies lost two key relievers, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, to free agency and now are looking to add a high-leverage bullpen arm. Although they’d prefer to land a right-handed closer, it would be better to just get the best free-agent closer, which is Scott, who was worth 4.0 WAR last season with Miami and San Diego. He logged a 1.75 ERA over 72 appearances with 84 strikeouts in 72 innings.
Pittsburgh Pirates — Tyler O’Neill, OF (2 years, $38 million)
The Pirates need some thunder in their lineup and if O’Neill can stay healthy, he should provide that. He hit 31 home runs and posted a 132 OPS+ last season with the Red Sox. He played in 113 games, his most since 2021, when he had a career-high 138 games played with the Cardinals. O’Neill has been injury-prone his entire career, only twice playing in more than 100 games in a season, but both times he hit more than 30 homers. He’s also a two-time Gold Glove winner.
San Diego Padres — Roki Sasaki, RHP (International pool budget)
Yu Darvish mentored Sasaki during Japan’s championship run in the 2023 World Baseball Classic and is said to want the talented 23-year-old as a teammate. There should be widespread competition to sign Sasaki and it’s unclear how he’ll make his decision. But he’ll arrive needing development, and it’s believed he wants to sign with a team that will develop him into an ace and one of the faces of the franchise, which makes San Diego a good fit. The Padres are lowering their payroll, but since Sasaki must be paid out of a team’s international bonus pool, they can afford him. Sasaki will be a huge get for whichever lucky team lands him. If it’s the Padres, it could be a huge factor in helping them remain postseason contenders over the next several years.
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San Francisco Giants — Corbin Burnes, RHP (7 years, $247 million)
The Giants anticipate a payroll reduction in 2025, but new president of baseball operations Buster Posey also knows the best way to make this team a contender again is through the rotation. Burnes, who is considered the top starting pitcher on the free-agent market, would more than make up for losing Blake Snell to the Dodgers. Pairing Burnes with Logan Webb atop the rotation would be a game-changer for the Giants. Somehow landing the coveted four-time All-Star would be a statement signing for Posey and San Francisco, which has struggled at times to acquire star free agents in the past.
Seattle Mariners — Pete Alonso, 1B (7 years, $189 million)
The Mariners can’t sit back and let the best rotation in the American League not make the playoffs for a second consecutive season. The best single move they can realistically make is signing Alonoso, putting his 40-home run bat behind Julio Rodríguez in their lineup. Beyond the bat, Alonso brings a fun personality and an ability to perform in the biggest moments — something the Mariners desperately need. Last season, he hit .240/.329/.459 with 34 home runs. In the two prior years combined, he had 86 home runs with 249 RBIs. The four-time All-Star posts every day. He will turn 30 this week. He played in all 162 games last season and he’s played in at least 150 games in every full season of his career, plus 57 in the 60-game 2020 season.
Blake Treinen got the win in Game 5 of the World Series, blanking the Yankees over 2 1/3 innings. (Wendell Cruz / Imagn Images)
St. Louis Cardinals — Blake Treinen, RHP (2 years, $18 million)
The Cardinals will consider whether to trade Ryan Helsley, the best closer in the NL last season, and if they do, replacing him with Treinen makes sense. If they traded Helsley and then signed Treinen to a two-year deal — and he can stay healthy and perform like he did for the Dodgers last season (1.93 ERA in 50 appearances), then the Cardinals could move him at the trade deadline for prospects. I know that’s a few “ifs” and “thens,” but I see a pathway that could work for St. Louis.
Tampa Bay Rays — Danny Jansen, C (2 years, $20 million)
Every year, when I talk with the Rays front office and ask about their needs, catching always seems to be one of the positions they mention. Although this free-agent class isn’t loaded at catcher, Jansen seems like a solid fit for them. He’s a good defensive catcher who calls an excellent game and would help the Rays’ many young pitchers. Jansen’s best defensive trait is his blocking as he tops the majors in blocks above average, according to Statcast.
Texas Rangers — Jeff Hoffman, RHP (3 years, $27 million
Under general manager Chris Young, the Rangers have always looked to improve the rotation and the bullpen, and Hoffman would be a great addition as they build the back end of their pen. Hoffman posted a 2.17 ERA and 0.965 WHIP over 68 appearances last season with the Phillies. It was his second consecutive year with an ERA below 2.50. He had 10 saves last season and ranked in the 96th percentile in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout percentage.
Toronto Blue Jays — Nathan Eovaldi, RHP (3 years, $70 million)
The Blue Jays are struggling to persuade free agents to come to Toronto. As badly as they want position players, they are also pursuing starting pitchers. Enter Eovaldi, who would fit nicely in their already strong rotation. They’ll probably have to give him one more year than the rest of the industry to land him, but he’s worth it, even heading into his age-35 season. Eovaldi went 12-8 with a 3.80 ERA over 29 starts last season with the Rangers. He was worth 2.3 WAR.
Washington Nationals – Anthony Santander, OF (7 years, $150.5 million)
I’ve mentioned this pairing before, but I just can’t shake it, so bear with me. The last time the Nationals were a few years away from being contenders, they shocked the baseball world by signing free-agent outfielder Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million contract. That price tag generated a lot of talk in the industry during the 2010-11 offseason. Will history repeat itself? If it does, Santander could be this year’s Werth, though he’s entering his age-30 season, while Werth was heading into his age-32 campaign.
Last season with the Orioles, Santander batted .235/.308/.506 (134 OPS+) with 44 homers and 102 RBIs. He’s been a stalwart in the middle of Baltimore’s lineup for several years and is a strong clubhouse presence. Most front-office executives I’ve talked with believe he’ll get no more than five years, but for the Nationals to sign him, they’ll have to go seven.
(Top image: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Pete Alonso: Nick Wosika / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Corbin Burnes: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images; Walker Buehler: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
