Cases of the new mpox variant which kills up to one in 10 people it infects could now have reached three countries outside of Africa.
Sweden became the first country outside of the continent to confirm a case of the new mpox strain, dubbed clade 1b, which has swept through central Africa killing hundreds since the outbreak began.
Now Pakistan and the Philippines have reported suspected cases, though they are waiting on test results to confirm if the mpox case is specifically related to the strain sparking alarm.
And experts suspect the new variant is already in Britain.
Infectious disease specialists told MailOnline that with it taking up to 17 days from infection for symptoms to start showing, there was a decent possibility Britain’s first case is only a few days or weeks from being confirmed.
This long incubation time also means such cases are unlikely to be spotted by border officials meaning airport screening is incredibly unlikely to be effective they added.
Adding further to the confusion is that another kind of mpox, previously called monkeypox, is enjoying a resurgence in the UK.
Latest official data shows there were double the number of the less deadly clade 2 mpox cases recorded in July this year compared to the month prior.
July’s total of over 40 cases is the highest number tallied in over a year.
And as this website’s maps shows, cases of the clade 2 variant which is much less fatal than the clade 1 of global concern, are also being recorded around the world.
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the ongoing mpox outbreak across several central African nations a ‘public health emergency of international concern’ just last week.
In the 2022 outbreak, thousands of cases were recorded in the UK, mostly in London
This is the same designation the WHO gave Covid in late January 2020, just a few weeks before the virus ripped across the world, and some scientists have compared the current outbreak to the ‘early days of HIV’.
Now within days the first case of the new mpox variant outside the continent was detected in Sweden, prompting the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to raise its risk level.
Suspected cases of the new variant have also been spotted in two patients, in Pakistan and the Philippines.
However, health authorities there have said while both patients have mpox testing is still underway to establish if these patients were indeed infected with the new strain.
Mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, is a rare viral infection which people usually pick up in the tropical areas of west and central Africa. Pictured, a colorized transmission electron micrograph of monkeypox particles (green) found within an infected cell (pink and purple)
The UK Health Security Agency has said no cases have yet been detected in Britain and the risk to the population remains ‘low’.
But rapid testing is being made available and GPs and hospitals have been told to isolate those with potential symptoms.
The Government is said to have enough vaccines and treatments to deal with a potential outbreak.
Professor Paul Hunter, an expert in infectious diseases from the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline the new strain of mpox was likely already in the UK.
‘Given that it can take up to 17 days for symptoms to develop and then another week for the diagnosis to be confirmed, then it is certainly quite likely, though not certain, that we have this clade here already,’ he said.
He added that, similar to the clade 2 variant, sexual contact remained the primary way that the new strain was spreading and therefore groups like men who have sex with men would be at increased risk.
‘1b was first detected in sex workers and is mainly spreading through sexual contact,’ he said.
‘So I think it likely that this new clade will spread most effectively in the same population.’
An outbreak of mpox clade 2 which spread through Europe in 2022 mainly spread through sexual contact, particularly among gay and bisexual men.
This led to these groups being offered a mpox vaccine by the NHS, alongside other at-risk groups, such as those who work in sex-on-premises venues as well as NHS workers who might be treating potential patients.
Nearly 100,000 people were infected in 2022 during that global outbreak of the disease.
The United States reported as many as 32,063 cases, with 58 deaths during the period as cases were reported in significant numbers in North, Central and South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Australasia.
However, the outbreak only killed an estimated 183 people, with this strain only having an estimated fatality rate of y about one in every 500 people infected.
In comparison, the new 1b strain kills an estimated one in 20 adults and one in 10 children.
But experts have said these fatality rates, which are from central Africa, are unlikely to be replicated in developed nations due to better access to higher quality healthcare.
Cases of the 2022 mpox strain continue to circulate however, with over 5,000 cases recorded globally since the start of the year.
