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NASA is tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, with a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth. Major cities like Mumbai and Dhaka are in the risk zone. The asteroid may explode midair with massive force.
The asteroid caught astronomers’ attention when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on December 31, 2024. (IMAGE: PIXABAY)
As National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) continues to track the trajectory of recently discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, it has increased the chances of it hitting the earth to 3.1 percent.
Despite the low risk of that happening, NASA data shows that the risk corridor of the asteroid stretches across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. This further leaves world’s most populated seven cities namely Mumbai, Kolkata, Dhaka, Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos and Khartoum, vulnerable.
According to the media reports, the urban areas of these cities have a combined population of more than 110 million.
‘City-Killer’ Asteroid To Be Visible Through April Before Fainting Until June
According to NASA, ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.
Earlier the American space agency had predicted the possibility of asteroid hitting earth at 2.3%.
“While still an extremely low possibility, additional observations and analysis of asteroid 2024 YR4 indicate that its impact probability with Earth has increased to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032.” NASA had said in its report.
Astronomers estimate the asteroid’s size to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures indicates it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.
Experts speculate that if it does not strike the Earth then it will likely explode midair with a force of approximately eight megatons of TNT – more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb, making it most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting.
Unlike the six-mile-wide asteroid that erased the existence of dinosaurs about 66 million years ago, 2024 YR4 is classified as a ‘city killer’ which means that it is not a planet threatening asteroid but still capable of flattening a city.
“As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies,” NASA said in its report published on February 7, 2025.
Asteroid ‘2024 YR4’ Identified in December Last Year
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported on December 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center– the international clearing house for small-body positional measurements – by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile.
The asteroid caught astronomers’ attention when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on December 31, 2024.
There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in.
