One in four properties in England will be at risk of flooding by 2050 thanks to climate change, a new report has warned.
The Environment Agency (EA) found that England’s flood risk is much higher than previously estimated, with 6.3 million properties currently under threat.
The new data shows that 4.6 million homes and businesses are currently at risk of surface water flooding by rainfall.
London is the most affected area, with more than 300,000 properties already at high risk of surface flooding.
However, the EA has also included its first assessment to consider the warming climate.
Worryingly, this indicates that a staggering eight million homes and businesses will be at risk of flooding in the next 25 years.
The new report comes after Storm Daragh triggered devastating floods which led to widespread property damage and disruption, leaving five dead and thousands without power.
Alison Dilworth, Friends of the Earth campaigner, says: ‘This report is yet another stark warning about the growing threat the climate crisis poses to people, homes and communities across the country.’
After Storm Darragh left thousands without power, the Environment Agency now warns that one in four homes could be at risk of flooding by 2050
The Environment Agency expects the risk of flooding to significantly increase around the country due to climate change. This map shows the percentage of properties in areas at high or medium risk of flooding from surface water
The EA puts flood risks into three categories: flooding by sea, by rivers, and surface water flooding from undrained rainwater.
Of these, surface water flooding currently puts the most properties at risk, defined by the EA as a one in 1,000 chance of flooding.
The risk of surface flooding is considerably higher than the previous estimate from 2018 but this is largely due to better predictive methods rather than increasing risk.
Yet, in a worrying discovery, the EA report found that more than 184,000 properties currently at risk would experience floodwaters of 30cm or more in the event of a flood.
At this depth, flood waters can be powerful enough to move cars, leading to massive property damage and significant disruption.
As the report notes, these risks will be significantly heightened as climate change leads to wetter winter months.
Even though a warmer climate can make some regions drier, warmer air can hold a greater amount of water leading to more intense periods of heavy rainfall.
Previous studies have shown that the intensity of stormy days in the UK increased 20 per cent on average between October 2023 and March 2024.
There are currently more than 6 million properties in England at risk of flooding. This includes 2.4 million properties which are at risk of flooding by rivers or seas which lead to particularly deep floodwaters. Pictured: The River Severn breaks its banks in Bewdley, Worcestershire, following storm Darragh
Rising sea levels will create a much greater risk of coastal flooding. A previous study showed that huge swathes of Britain’s coastline are at risk of being plunged underwater by 2100. This map shows the areas where the current annual cost of flooding damage (left) is expected to increase over the next 80 years (right)
Likewise, the EA’s new analysis highlights the growing risk of flooding by rivers and the sea.
The report estimates that 2.4 million properties are at risk of flooding by river or sea – a slight decrease from the 2.6 million estimated in 2018.
However, the number of properties in the highest risk category, with a one in 30 chance of flooding in a given year, has increased by 88 per cent, partly due to better data and modelling.
The report found that 367,900 homes and businesses are located in areas with a high or medium risk of flooding.
Of those, more than half are concentrated in the East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber, and South East.
Worryingly, should these areas experience flooding, the EA predicts that 163,000 would see floodwaters at 30cm or higher.
Just like the risk of surface water flooding, the number of properties threatened by the sea and rivers is expected to increase due to climate change.
By mid-century, the EA estimates that 3.1 million homes and businesses will be at risk of flooding by sea or river.
The Environment Agency now estimates that 3.1 million homes and businesses are at risk of flooding by sea or river by 2050. An earlier study suggests that this will inflict massive costs on the UK reaching into the billions of pounds
The Environment Agency says that rising sea levels and more violent storms due to climate change mean that more than 100,000 homes will be at risk of being destroyed by coastal erosion before the end of the century. Pictured: Storm Darragh batters the coast of Cornwall
By 2105, the EA estimates that up to 35 per cent of coastal properties in the East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber will be put at risk by coastal erosion
Since 1990, the average sea level around the UK’s coast has already risen by nearly 20cm.
Recent studies suggest that flood damage is expected to increase by more than 25 per cent if action is not taken to counter climate change and rising sea levels.
Parts of the southeast and northwest of England, south Wales and central Scotland are predicted to be the worst affected as existing flood defences are overwhelmed.
Likewise, rising sea levels and more violent storms will have a knock-on effect on coastal erosion – putting yet more homes in danger.
The EA’s analysis includes the first national assessment of coastal erosion risks since 2017.
This found that the number of homes in danger of being lost to the sea will increase to 3,500 by 2050, more than doubling to reach 10,100 by the end of the century.
Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the EA, says: ‘We have spent the last few years transforming our understanding of flood and coastal erosion risk in England, drawing on the best available data from the Environment Agency and local authorities, as well as improved modelling and technological advances.
‘Providing the nation with the best available information on flood and coastal erosion risk is vital to ensuring that policy makers, practitioners and communities are ready to adapt to flooding and coastal change.’
