Nearly three quarters of Australians aren’t prepared to vote for the Labor Party according to an opinion poll released today.
Just a tick over one in four voters – 27 per cent – said they would cast their first preference vote for the government in the latest Resolve poll.
That is an extraordinary result for a first term administration just months away from a federal election.
And one of the reasons for it is clear, according to an elected Labor MP, who is increasingly despondent.
‘He just looks like he doesn’t give a sh** anymore,’ the MP told Daily Mail Australia. It’s low energy Albo.
The purchase of a $4.3m retirement home on the NSW central coast didn’t help. But it doesn’t fully explain the feeling among Labor that Albo’s performance of late has been lacklustre.
Another opinion poll released today, Newspoll, found that Albo is viewed as a weak leader, while Opposition Leader Peter Dutton regarded as decisive by 60 percent of voters. The Newspoll did regard Dutton as more arrogant than Albo, however.
‘Of course it did – what has Albo got to be arrogant about, anyway?’ the disgruntled Labor MP sarcastically asked.
Nearly three quarters of Australians aren’t prepared to vote for the Labor Party according to an opinion poll released today
Today’s Resolve polling result is actually so grim that, even if every single Greens voter’s preferences flowed Labor’s way, that would only lift the ALP vote to 39 per cent.
That would require the government to find a further 11 percent support amongst voters for crossbench parties and independents just to hit the 50 percent mark on the two party preferred vote after preferences.
At the 2022 federal election Labor won a narrow majority of seats in the Parliament with a two party preferred vote of 52.13 percent.
The same poll also revealed that a comfortable majority of voters (59 percent) feel worse off than they did before Labor came to power.
It’s a sentiment backed up by the economic data, including the ongoing per capita recession, which is exacerbating the cost of living crisis.
The bad results comes as the PM faces growing criticism for inadequately responding to the rise in violent anti-semitism around the country, including Friday’s arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue.
The PM and his senior ministers appear loath to weigh in too strongly by condemning the attacks, fearing a backlash in Labor seats with significant Muslim populations. It’s a deeply cynical fence sitting exercise.
Albo and his team may also be reluctant to take a stronger stand for fear of the political impact doing so would have amongst Green voters in inner city seats. It could also trouble the Greens parliamentary party itself, which Labor is likely to need the support of after the next election if its able to cobble together a minority government.
‘He just looks like he doesn’t give a sh** anymore,’ the MP told Daily Mail Australia. It’s low energy Albo (above, in Parliament, on November 27)
But could Albo even get the party over the line in the first place?
It’s often forgotten about but 2022 Albo’s campaigning efforts weren’t great, despite Labor winning.
He stumbled with economic figures on day one of the campaign before recovering to get Labor’s campaign back on track.
The then-Opposition’s best week started at the end of week two when Albo was forced into isolation with Covid.
That meant that senior shadow ministers, such as Jason Clare, took the lead rather than Albo. They proved themselves better on the hustings than their leader.
Unless Albo can find his mojo and quickly, there is a growing risk that the government won’t be able to recover its position sufficiently to press for a majority victory.
No first term opposition has lost a re-election bid since 1931, suggesting Albo nonetheless remains in the box seat to win the next election, despite all the problems he’s having.
However, while there is nearly 100 years of precedent showing that first term government’s successfully get re-elected, the last three first term governments to do so only won their re-election efforts narrowly.
Can Albo get his mojo back? He’s going to need it, if today’s polls are any indication
John Howard’s Coalition was re-elected in 1998 with less than 50 percent of the two party vote, successful only because it sandbagged enough key marginal seats to claim victory.
Julia Gillard won Labor a second term in 2010 but only as a minority government, after the fallout from rolling Kevin Rudd as PM during Labor’s first term.
And Malcolm Turnbull’s victory at the 2016 election saw the Coalition majority reduced to a single seat, after the tumult of deposing Tony Abbott as PM in his first term.
As difficult as each of the above re-elections were for these first term governments, they all started with bigger majorities to defend than Albo has now, adding to the degree of difficulty for the current government as the next election looms large.
My prediction is that Labor finds a way to win, with enough voters giving it a second chance rather than turfing it out unceremoniously after just the one term.
That said, retaining majority government given all the problems and missteps during Albo’s first three years as PM might be a bridge too far.
He really has been a disappointment as PM.
