Poland’s presidential election, between a liberal pro-EU candidate and a right-wing ‘football hooligan’ rival, is currently too close to call after consecutive exit polls contradicted each other.
The first Ipsos exit poll released when the voting ended showed that liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski won 50.3% of the vote and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki won 49.7%.
This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, and the second Ipsos poll went back on the first, giving Nawrocki 50.7% of the vote, while Trzaskowski had 49.3%.
This second poll was released just hours after the first. The final results should be released on Monday morning or afternoon, the country’s election commission said.
Despite this, both candidates claimed to have won the political fight, the results of which are likely set the course for the nation’s political future and its relations with the European Union.
‘We won,’ Trzaskowski told his supporters at an election night event in Warsaw. He vowed that he would be a president for all Poles, including those who did not vote for him.
But Nawrocki, who was recently revealed to have been involved in a bare-knuckle mass brawl between rival football supporters, said he believed it would turn in his favour.
‘We must win tonight,’ Nawrocki, who is also alleged to have criminal contacts and procured prostitutes for guests at a luxury hotel, said.
Supporters hold flags during the final rally for Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, ahead of the second round of presidential election, in Biala Podlaska, Poland, May 30, 2025
Civic Coalition presidential candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski waits for the exit poll announcement of the second round of the presidential election, in Warsaw, Poland, June 1, 2025
Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, talks to the press after he voted in the second round of presidential election, at a polling station in Warsaw, Poland, June 1, 2025
The state electoral commission was expected to release the final vote count on Monday, though the result could be clear sooner.
Nawrocki has taken much of his political inspiration from American president Donald Trump.
He was heard telling crowds hours before the election: ‘I am the voice of all those whose cries do not reach Donald Tusk today.
‘The voice of all those who do not want Polish schools to be places of ideology, our Polish agriculture to be destroyed, or our freedom taken away.’
His voters reportedly showed up with hats bearing the words ‘Poland is the most important’, an echo of Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ slogan.
They also reportedly showed up with banners that had slogans like ‘Stop Migration Pact’ and ‘This is Poland.’
This appears to have pleased Trump, who has invited him to the Oval Office for a photo opportunity.
Last week, the head of the US’ Department of Homeland Security Kristi Noem implied that only a Nawrocki presidency could ensure that American troops remained in Poland.
Supporters of Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, hold flags during his final rally, ahead of the second round of presidential election, in Biala Podlaska, Poland, May 30, 2025
Mayor of Warsaw and Civic Coalition (KO) candidate for the Polish presidential election, Rafal Trzaskowski (C-L) with his wife Malgorzata Trzaskowska (C-R) meets with local residents in Ostroda, Poland, 30 May 2025
A woman casts her ballot during the runoff of the presidential election on June 01, 2025 in Warsaw, Poland
Poll workers carry the ballot boxes at a primary school before they are opened for counting during the second round of the presidential elections in Gdansk, on June 1, 2025
Poll workers open the ballot boxes at a primary school before they are counted during the second round of the presidential elections in Gdansk, on June 1, 2025
She said during a visit to the country: ‘Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country.
‘If you elect a leader who will work with President Trump, the Polish people will have a strong ally … You will continue to have a US military presence here.’
He is alleged to have moonlighted as a pimp during a stint as a security guard at the Grand Hotel in Sopot, a coastal resort near Gdansk.
He was also accused of initially promising to look after an elderly disabled man in exchange for his flat, but going back on his promise.
The man was found living in a state care home without any assistance from the right-winger.
The outcome will determine whether Poland takes a more nationalist path or pivots more decisively towards liberal democratic norms.
With conservative President Andrzej Duda completing his second and final term, the new president will have significant influence over whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government can fulfil its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws.
