A terrifying interactive map reveals exactly what will happen if the ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hits some of the world’s most populated areas in 2032.
And it suggests that this deadly space rock has the potential to cause massive devastation.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a one in 45, or 2.2 per cent, chance of hitting the Earth on December 22, 2032.
If it did collide with Earth, the impact would release a blast with the power of eight to 15 megatons of TNT.
That is more than 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima which killed an estimated 140,000 people.
Scientists estimate that the impact could be similar to that of the Tunguska asteroid which flattened 830 square miles (2,150 square km) of Siberian forest in 1908 – an area more than double the size of New York.
In the unlikely scenario in which 2024 YR4 hits a densely populated city, a shockwave would flatten most buildings in an 8.5-mile radius (13.7 km) of the epicentre.
If it were to detonate above central London, the blast would be powerful enough to shatter windows and cause injuries in Slough, 24.6 miles (39.6km) away.
Estimates suggest that 2024 YR4 is between 40 and 90 metres (130-300ft) in diameter, making it potentially as large as the Statue of Liberty.
If it does hit, the asteroid will collide with the atmosphere at a staggering speed of 38,740 miles per hour (62,350 kmph) and would likely explode above the ground in an ‘airburst’ explosion.
The exact strength of this impact will be determined by several different factors including the asteroid’s exact size, composition, and the angle at which it enters the atmosphere.
Dr Edward Bloomer, senior astronomer at the Royal Observatory Greenwich, told MailOnline: ‘There are a large number of variables that could affect the outcome. In theory, an impact from an object of this size travelling at speed can devastate the area surrounding the impact point out to several tens of kilometres.’
If comparisons to the 1908 Tunguska event are reliable, the resulting explosion could be equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT.
Using calculations created by Dr Jean Bele, a nuclear scientist from MIT, it is possible to work out the destructive potential of that explosion by comparing it to a nuclear weapon of the same size.
Within a 3.5 mile (5.7km) radius of the epicentre, peak pressures would exceed 20 lbs per square inch, toppling even strong concrete buildings and killing anyone in the area.
Out as far as 5.5 miles (8.8km) reinforced concrete buildings would be damaged or destroyed and almost everyone would be killed.
NASA predicts that the city-destroying asteroid 2024 YR4 has a one in 45, or 2.2 per cent, chance of hitting the Earth on December 22, 2032 (stock image)
Fatalities will still be likely out to 12 miles (18.9km) in any direction from the epicentre with residential structures collapsing even at the edge of this range.
Finally, the blast would be so powerful that it would shatter windows and cause light injuries up to 24.6 miles (39.6km) away.
On MailOnline’s interactive graphic, you can see the devastation that this would cause in many of the world’s capital cities.
And, with such a large blast radius, 2024 YR4 has the potential to all but wipe some smaller cities off the map.
In Washington DC, the US capital, the blast has the potential to destroy all three branches of government.
If the asteroid exploded above the city centre, the White House could be caught in the most devastating area of the blast with pressures strong enough to flatten even the strongest concrete structures.
In Paris, the shockwave would flatten residential buildings across almost the entire city, with fatalities likely as far out as the suburb of Brunoy to the south.
Likewise in London, the explosion would knock down residential buildings in Croydon and break windows in the nearby commuter towns of Sevenoaks and Gravesend.
At up to 90 metres in diameter, the size of the Statue of Liberty, the impact from 2024 YR4 could release a blast with between eight and 15 megatons of power
If 2024 YR4 hit the centre of New York City, residential buildings would be knocked down as far out as Queens (blue ring) while windows would be broken by the blast (yellow ring) in Middletown Township on the other side of the bay
For more densely populated cities, meanwhile, the asteroid has the potential to cause massive casualties.
New York is America’s most densely populated city with an estimated 428 people per square mile and a total population of 8.28 million.
If 2024 YR4 hit the city centre, almost all buildings would be flattened as far out as the Bronx while Long Beach and Middleton Township across the bay would be affected by the shockwave.
However, New York is relatively sparse compared to Tokyo, Japan which has a population density of 16,000 people per square mile.
2024 YR4 has the potential to cause widespread fatalities as far as Kawasaki, 12 miles from the city centre, and threaten the majority of Tokyo’s 14.18 residents.
After first being detected in December last year, 2024 YR4 has quickly jumped to the top of NASA’s and the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) list of risky objects.
Although the chance of hitting Earth is low, it is still the only large asteroid with an impact probability greater than one in 100.
This has earned the asteroid a rare score of three on the Torino Scale, a scale used to measure the threat posed by near-Earth objects.
2024 YR4 (pictured) was spotted in December last year but has become a growing concern for the world’s space agencies as the probability of an impact increased. Scientists say they need to make more observations of the asteroid to learn more about its orbit
Current estimates of the asteroid’s orbit place the ‘risk corridor’ (red line) over northern South America, sub-Saharan Africa, India, and southern China
Scientists hope that the impact probability will rapidly fall towards zero as they learn more about its orbit, but an impact cannot currently be ruled out.
‘At the moment, worrying won’t help,’ says Dr Bloomer.
‘We simply don’t have accurate enough information about its orbit yet. It is potentially threatening enough to kickstart a more intense level of scrutiny, but for now that’s our best course of action.’
Recently, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) made the emergency decision to use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to take more accurate measurements.
The JWST will record the heat emitted by the asteroid using its infrared sensors which will give a more accurate estimate for its size.
A team of ESA scientists will make one observation in March when the asteroid reaches its peak brightness and another in May as it travels away from Earth.
This will be the last chance to observe 2024 YR4 before it becomes too dim to see from Earth until it returns again in 2028.
