One Republican state senator in Omaha, Nebraska is holding firm against pressure from his own party to change how the state awards electoral college votes, in a move that could decide who wins the presidency in November.
Nebraska is one of only two states, along with Maine, that allocates electoral votes by congressional district, while all others have a winner-take-all system.
But while the Nebraska GOP wants to change to awarding all its electoral college votes to the statewide winner, State Senator Mike McDonnell has held up the move as essentially a tiebreaker vote.
Under Nebraska’s current system, Donald Trump is almost certain to win four of the state’s five electoral college votes, while Democratic-leaning Omaha – which McDonnell represents – could offer Kamala Harris a single electoral college vote.
This exact result occurred in the 2020 election, where Joe Biden picked up an electoral college vote despite losing the state by over 19 points.
With polls showing the 2024 race deadlocked with less than two months until election day, forecasters say there is a possibility the single vote could be vital in a plausible scenario where the election ends in a 269-269 electoral college tie.
Nebraska State Senator Mike McDonell is withstanding pressure from his own party to change how the state awards electoral college votes in a move that could decide who wins the presidency in November
McDonnell represents Omaha and its suburbs, which typically have voted for Democrats while the large majority of the rest of the state is staunchly Republican
McDonnell is seen as the vital holdout preventing Nebraska from altering its rules in the state legislature, with two other Republican senators who have not yet committed also expected to follow his lead if he changes, reports the New York Times.
For a presidential candidate to win the presidency under the electoral college, they must win at least 270 votes.
If neither party does so, the fate of the nation is placed in the hands of the House of Representatives, which awards votes based on support of each state delegation rather than the total number of congressmembers voting.
This would almost certainly hand Trump a second term in the White House as Republicans control more House delegations.
While statistically unlikely, the single electoral college vote in Nebraska could be history defining.
Kamala Harris could hypothetically lose the presidential election by two electoral college votes, 270-268, if Nebraska changes its election rules
Under Nebraska’s current rules, Donald Trump won just four of the state’s five electoral college votes in 2020 despite winning the statewide race by almost 20 points
Namely, Omaha’s outstanding electoral college vote could take on national importance if Harris wins the ‘Blue Wall’ – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – but loses the other swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
In that case, the one electoral college vote would be the difference between a 269-269 tie and Harris winning 270-268.
Despite mounting pressure to change his stance, McDonnell has held steadfast, his spokesman Barry Rubin told the New York Times.
‘Senator McDonnell has heard a lot of compelling arguments for and against, but as of right now he still remains a no vote,’ he said.
‘The only way he would think about switching would be if someone gave him a compelling reason for why it made sense on the merits of the winner-take-all situation.’
Rubin added that McDonnell has not contacted Trump or Harris’ respective campaigns for political favors in return for his vote, insisting that ‘nobody is offering anybody anything.’
Despite mounting pressure to change his stance on altering Nebraska’s electoral college system, McDonnell has held steadfast as a no vote
Election forecasters say Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are essentially deadlocked as the presidential election enters its final weeks
Although McDonnell’s spokesperson maintained that the state senator is not looking to trade his vote for political favors, he is reportedly eyeing a run for Mayor of Omaha next year.
While McDonnell has so far not changed his mind, pressure on him to sway is not likely to let up in the coming weeks as Nebraska’s legislature could still alter its law up until the day before election day and have it ready for when polls open.
The pressure campaign on McDonnell already ramped up this week when South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham visited the Nebraska legislature.
He reportedly set up a meeting with Governor Jim Pillen and a number of state senators including McDonnell, in which Trump called in and urged the lawmakers to change their rules.
Pillen’s team have indicated that he would call a special session to change the state’s electoral college system if he understands there are enough commitments to do so.
