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The “opinion trading” industry has reportedly attracted investments upwards of Rs 4,200 crore, with heavyweight venture capital firms like Peak XV placing their bets.
SEBI said that opinion trading apps offer no legal protections or real securities.
In a digital landscape increasingly blurring the lines between gaming, speculation, and financial investment, a new breed of platforms is quietly thriving – and they’ve caught the attention of the top market watchdog. Dubbed “opinion trading platforms”, these apps and websites allow users to bet on real-world outcomes – from election results and cricket scores to the volatile swings of cryptocurrency – under the guise of expressing opinions. But behind the flashy interfaces and promises of easy returns lies a stark regulatory vacuum that has prompted the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to issue a sharp warning to investors.
These platforms, according to SEBI, offer no real securities to trade – and no legal protections either. Yet, they are growing at breakneck speed. A recent investigative report by The Indian Express revealed that the industry had already attracted investments upwards of Rs 4,200 crore, with heavyweight venture capital firms like Peak XV (formerly Sequoia Capital India), Elevation Capital, and Excel Partners placing their bets. An estimated Rs 50,000 crore in transactions flows through these platforms annually, with more than 5 crore users in India alone.
The concept appears simple, even enticing: users are asked binary questions such as “Will Party X win with a margin of 10,000 votes?” or “Will Bitcoin cross $50,000 by the end of the month?” A correct prediction means a payout; a wrong one leads to a loss. Platforms like Gurugram-based Probo and MPL Opinio are leading the charge, offering a wide range of topics – Probo spans politics, sports, and crypto, while MPL Opinio focuses exclusively on cricket-related wagers.
Many of these apps cleverly couch their offerings in the language of legitimate financial trading. Users are encouraged to ‘invest’ in outcomes, with terms like “profit”, “stop-loss”, and “trading” liberally used to add an air of credibility. But SEBI has made it clear: these platforms are not registered stock exchanges, and their operations do not fall within SEBI’s regulatory framework. If any platform attempts to facilitate actual securities trading without registration, it is in direct violation of the law.
The concern isn’t just legal semantics – it’s investor protection. Without regulation, users who lose money have little to no recourse. SEBI’s advisory warns that participation in these schemes offers no safeguards under existing securities laws, leaving investors exposed to potential fraud or misuse.
Globally, the picture is more nuanced. In the United States, a platform named Kalshi – the model for Probo – is regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In contrast, others like Polymarket have come under federal scrutiny for offering unregistered betting services. The UK and Australia also maintain regulatory oversight over such platforms, offering a degree of consumer protection that is currently absent in India.
While the Centre amended IT rules in 2023 to begin regulating online gaming – including aspects of wagering – the implementation remains patchy, and it is unclear whether these changes extend meaningfully to opinion trading platforms.
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