What we learned about the College Football Playoff: Who’s in? Who’s safe? Who’s on bubble?

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What we learned about the College Football Playoff: Who’s in? Who’s safe? Who’s on bubble?

We have seen college football teams back into the College Football Playoff, losing their last regular-season or conference title game and still earning a spot in the four-team field.

This happened to Alabama in 2017 after losing the Iron Bowl and to Ohio State after it lost to Michigan in 2022. That was the same season TCU of the Big 12 became the first team to lose its conference championship game (to Kansas State) and still get in. In all those cases, that loss was the team’s only loss.

Now with a 12-team CFP, backing into the Playoff has a whole new meaning. Looking at you, Ohio State (10-2). Miami (10-2), too.

What we learned about the College Football Playoff in the last full weekend of the regular season is we have a pretty good idea of who will be in the College Football Playoff heading into championship weekend.

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Playing for a bye

No. 2 Ohio State’s faceplant against Michigan opened the door for No. 4 Penn State to reach the Big Ten Championship Game against No. 1 Oregon. Side note: Congratulations to the Ducks (12-0) for being the only FBS team to get through 12 games unscathed.

The Nittany Lions (11-1) and Ducks look to be safely into the bracket, with the winner getting a bye. Worst case for the Ducks is hosting a first-round game. Penn State could fall all the way out of a hosting spot, depending on how other championship games work out.

The SEC has a similar situation with No. 7 Georgia (10-2) facing No. 3 Texas (11-1), which clinched a spot after beating rival Texas A&M. We doubt the committee will punish Georgia for reaching the championship game, though it would be in the Bulldogs’ best interest to not get blown out by the Longhorns.

Coming off that great escape against Georgia Tech on Friday night in eight OTs, Georgia doesn’t want to give the selection committee any reason to reconsider Alabama or Mississippi, both of which beat the Bulldogs.

Winner gets in, loser goes home

A wild Big 12 race ended somewhat routinely. All the favorites won this weekend, putting No. 18 Iowa State (10-2) and No. 16 Arizona State (10-2) in the conference title game. We’ll see what the penultimate rankings say Tuesday, but the committee has not been overly kind to the Big 12, which means only the winner will make the field as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

Same goes for the Mountain West, where No. 11 Boise State hosts No. 22 UNLV on Friday night. The American Athletic Conference will argue for Army (10-1) if it beats Tulane in that title game, but the Cadets failed their Notre Dame test badly and played one of the weakest schedules in the country.

An interesting race has developed between the Mountain West and Big 12 for the No. 4 seed and bye.

Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos (11-1) have held that spot in the last two rankings, comfortably ahead of the highest-ranked Big 12 team. How much the Big 12 can close the gap — if at all — is something to watch Tuesday.

The Broncos beat Oregon State 34-18 on Friday. On Saturday, Iowa State knocked off No. 24 Kansas State 29-21 and Arizona State thumped Arizona 49-7.

UNLV also being ranked — with two victories against Big 12 teams — makes it seem unlikely that the Big 12 title game winner will slingshot past Boise State if the Broncos win. And the Rebels will probably have a good case to make a big leap forward if they win on the Blue Turf.

Bid-stealer

Clemson had a weird day.

The Tigers lost 17-14 to rival South Carolina, with Cade Klubnik throwing a brutal interception in the waning moments when Clemson (9-3) was in position to tie it with a short field goal.

But the Tigers did get the help they needed to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game when Syracuse rallied from 21-0 down in the first half to beat No. 6 Miami 42-38.

“Hey, Dabo Swinney, congrats. I got you in, baby!” Orange coach Fran Brown said.

The Tigers will face No. 9 SMU (11-1). The Mustangs appear safely in the field no matter what happens in Charlotte, N.C. Win the conference, earn a bye. Easy.

Clemson has no path with a loss but shouldn’t have a problem being one of the five highest-ranked conference champions if it wins the ACC. Whether that’s good enough to get a top-four seed and a bye is iffy.

But if Clemson is in along with SMU, then another team looking good for an at-large spot right now is getting bumped.

Safe

Ohio State’s latest loss to Michigan was the worst one yet during this four-game skid in The Game.

Still, the second-ranked Buckeyes (10-2) are in a group that looks safely into the bracket even though they won’t play championship weekend.

No. 5 Notre Dame (11-1) closed the season with 10 straight victories. The Fighting Irish can’t earn a bye because they’re not in a conference but should have no trouble getting the first-round home game that they have been pointing toward since the end of last season.

Whether the Irish are seeded No. 5, 6 or 7 will be determined by the conference title games.

No. 8 Tennessee (10-2) wiped out an early deficit and beat Vanderbilt 36-23 on Saturday, giving the Volunteers a fairly stress-free week of waiting to find out if they will go on the road or host a first-round game.

As for the Buckeyes, being in position to back into the Playoff seemed to be no consolation for losing to Michigan again.

“I’m not there right now, quite honestly,” Buckeyes coach Ryan Day said when asked about resetting for a possible playoff run. “Still trying to digest everything that just happened, and I got a locker room full of guys who are just devastated.”

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Kinda safe

As we said, if Clemson wins somebody is getting bumped.

Who will be that someone?

How about Miami? The Hurricanes already handed the Tigers their spot in the ACC title game. The Canes had several great escapes early in the season but closed the year losing two of four. On the bright side, losing one-score games to Georgia Tech (7-5) with Haynes King and at Syracuse (9-3) is nothing to be ashamed of.

The Canes don’t have a bunch of wins against highly ranked teams, but the resume looks better than expected with Tech, Louisville (8-4), Duke (9-3) and Florida (7-5) all closing well.

“This team won 10 football games against some really good teams,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal told reporters after the loss to Syracuse.

What about Indiana?

This committee seems unlikely to turn away an 11-1 team, with its only loss at Ohio State, but the fact remains that outside of the Buckeyes, the only team the Hoosiers played that finished above .500 was Michigan (7-5).

Hey, Ohio State couldn’t beat the Wolverines at home and Indiana did. So that’s something.

Both the Hoosiers and Hurricanes should become big SMU fans.

SEC on the bubble

The committee hasn’t shown much interest in giving these three-loss SEC teams the benefit of a doubt, but the company line is every week the group starts with a blank sheet of paper, so we should be open-minded to a big shift.

The hot team is No. 15 South Carolina, which closed the season with six straight victories.

“If the committee’s job is to pick the 12 best teams, you tell me?” South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said.

Ironically, South Carolina’s case gets even better if Clemson wins the ACC, but Clemson winning the ACC also clutters the list of at-large teams by adding SMU.

The other issue South Carolina has is losses to the two teams ranked directly ahead of it: No. 13 Alabama and No. 14 Mississippi.

“Well, I think everyone’s aware of our schedule, and I don’t know the exact stats, but I know we beat four Top-25 teams throughout the year. And I don’t know how many, if anyone, has done that,” Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer said.

It’s actually three since LSU dropped out. Still, victories against Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina are nice. Those losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt? Both finished 6-6.

Surely, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey will have something to say about it, but his opinion doesn’t count.

(Photo of South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers running the ball against Clemson’s T.J. Parker: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)

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