Here in the frozen north country, we feel more February heat from our toaster than from the sun. But that isn’t the kind of heat this column cares about right now.
The kind of heat that really matters in baseball these days is the heat being felt by the teams, front offices and managers that are under the most pressure to make 2025 the year — or else.
So who are those teams, front offices and managers? We asked that question of the 32 baseball executives, former executives, coaches and scouts who took part in our annual spring training preview survey. Let’s take a look at the teams they think are feeling the heat.
MARK SHAPIRO, ROSS ATKINS, JOHN SCHNEIDER AND THE BLUE JAYS (22 VOTES): From the day they called up Vlad Guerrero Jr. in 2019, it feels as if the Blue Jays have been on the clock. But six years and zero postseason wins later, this seems like the year the alarm goes off.
What are the odds they can extend Vlad before he cuts off contract talks on Tuesday and prepares to head for free agency? What happens if they can’t? What are the ripple effects on Bo Bichette and the still-talented cast around them? The rest of the baseball world is intently focused on all of that.
What does it mean for the fate of a front office that feels haunted by all the stars it chased but couldn’t sign? Stay tuned. There’s a season to play. The fan base is watching. And that whopping vote total tells us the entire sport is riveted on every one of these plot lines — and how they affect the people who run this team and the stars whose time has produced more frustration than thrills.
“I don’t see anybody being under more pressure than the Blue Jays,” one longtime exec said. “I think they’ve got a lot on the line this year.”
How will the Blue Jays-Vladimir Guerrero Jr. saga end? (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
JED HOYER, CRAIG COUNSELL AND THE CUBS (12 VOTES): Their curse-busting World Series was (gasp) nine years ago. Their last postseason win was (what?) eight years ago. And the Cubs are now entering their fifth season since Theo Epstein headed off to figure out the inner secrets of the pitch clock. So one voter said this as clearly as it can be said: “The Cubs have to win.”
You should know that our voters like this roster. It feels as though Hoyer, the club’s president of baseball operations, has pushed many of the right buttons. And there’s a reason Counsell is the highest-paid manager in the game. But when you’re the one team spending big money in the NL Central Thrift Shop, you need something tangible to show for it. Will this be their time?
“The Cubs,” said one rival exec, “feel like they’re under heavy pressure.”
BRYCE HARPER, TREA TURNER AND THE PHILLIES’ CORE (7 VOTES): We introduced a new question in our survey this year: Which rosters — or core groups — are under the most pressure? The results were fascinating.
The Blue Jays players (nine votes) won that one, too. But right behind them were the Phillies. It’s not hard to see why.
They’re rocking the third-highest payroll in baseball. They’re coming off two straight postseason train wrecks. Yet for the second straight winter, their legendary team-builder, Dave Dombrowski, has doubled down on a roster built to win. So if this core group wants to stay together, it needs to win together.
“They’re getting older,” said one voter. “Their core group of players is starting to age. (Kyle) Schwarber and (J.T.) Realmuto are free agents at the end of the year. I just feel a sense of urgency in a very difficult division.”
JERRY DIPOTO AND THE MARINERS (7 VOTES): Let’s recap the Mariners’ star-crossed history: 48 seasons … zero appearances in the World Series … just five trips to the postseason … and haven’t even reached a League Championship Series since 2001. That doesn’t quite make them the Cleveland Browns of baseball, but that’s quite a trail of seasons that didn’t end well.
Not all of that, obviously, is on their modern-day trade maestro, and current president of baseball ops, Jerry Dipoto, now entering his 10th season atop this front office. But 130 trades into his tenure, this feels like a significant year in Dipoto’s life and times.
He has built possibly the best rotation in baseball. But ownership hasn’t given him the cash to build around it. So it feels like this team is just treading water — and the baseball world let us know it’s noticed.
“The iron is hot,” said one AL exec, “and they’re not striking.”
Who else is feeling the heat?
A.J. Preller’s Padres were among the clubs singled out by voters. (Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
With all the precincts counted, let’s recap the voting.
TEAMS/FRONT OFFICES/MANAGERS UNDER PRESSURE
Blue Jays — 22
Cubs — 12
Mariners — 7
Padres — 5
Angels — 2
Phillies — 2
Yankees — 1
Red Sox — 1
Cardinals — 1
Astros — 1
Twins — 1
Pirates — 1
Rockies — 1
MANAGERS WHO WERE SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED
John Schneider (Blue Jays) — 3
Oliver Marmol (Cardinals) — 2
Rob Thomson (Phillies) — 2
Aaron Boone (Yankees) — 1
Rocco Baldelli (Twins) — 1
ROSTERS/CORE GROUPS UNDER PRESSURE
Blue Jays — 9
Phillies — 7
Padres — 5
Yankees — 4
Orioles — 4
Mariners — 3
Cubs — 2
Mets — 2
Astros — 1
Dodgers — 1
Diamondbacks — 1
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Cole Burston / Getty Images; Brandon Sloter / Image Of Sport / Getty Images; Griffin Quinn / Getty Images)
