Following the death of Pope Francis at the age of 88, the Catholic Church must now begin the lengthy process of electing his successor.
Starting at least 15 days after his death, the 135 eligible cardinals will be locked away in the legendary Conclave until they have chosen the next pope.
But if you just can’t wait for the world’s most secretive election to run its course, MailOnline has used AI to predict the result.
According to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, the man set to become the next head of the Roman Catholic Church is Cardinal Pietro Parolin.
As the AI points out, the 70-year-old Italian priest is seen by many as the natural heir to Pope Francis’ legacy and holds an edge in current betting markets.
ChatGPT said: ‘As Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is viewed as the “continuity” candidate – acceptable to both reformers and traditionalists.
‘In closed‑door voting, courted largely by European and Latin American cardinals, he’s seen as a safe compromise if no single progressive candidate can secure the two‑thirds majority.’
However, even for an AI, predicting the next pope is notoriously difficult and ChatGPT warns that ‘the margin is narrow, and any of the top three or four could still emerge’.
Following the death of Pope Francis (pictured), the 135 eligible cardinals of the Catholic Church will gather in Rome to hold a conclave and elect his successor
While it will be weeks until we know the name of the next pope, MailOnline has used OpenAI’s ChatGPT to predict the result (stock image)
According to AI, the leading candidate for the next Pontiff is Cardinal Pietro Parolin (pictured), the 70-year-old Italian priest seen by many as the natural heir to Pope Francis’ legacy
The new pope will be elected in the notoriously secretive process called Conclave.
The word ‘conclave’ – from the Latin ‘cum clave’, or ‘with key’ – vividly conveys its clandestine nature.
Any of the 252 living cardinals – senior dignitaries of the Catholic Church – younger than 80 are eligible to vote and many will already be travelling to Rome from all over the world to join the election.
Once the process starts the ‘cardinal electors’ will remain in the Vatican without access to information from the outside world until a new pope is chosen by a two-thirds majority.
While any baptized Catholic man could, in theory, be elected, in practice the 2025 conclave will almost certainly choose one of the senior cardinals known as ‘papabili’ or papal candidates.
Asked which of these would most likely secure the majority vote, ChatGPT says that Cardinal Pietro Parolin has a narrow lead.
Citing Reuters, the AI says: ‘As Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is seen as a natural compromise between progressives and conservatives.
‘He speaks multiple languages, oversaw delicate diplomacy, and ranks second only to the pope in the Vatican hierarchy.’
Once the election begins, the cardinals will remain in the Vatican until a new pope is chosen by a two-thirds majority. Pictured: Cardinals at morning Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica, Vatican City, in 2005 before sequestering themselves in the Sistine Chapel for the beginning of the conclave to elect a new pope
The AI also analysed global betting markets shortly after Pope Francis’ death, finding that Cardinal Parolin holds ‘the slightest edge in the pool of bettors and prediction markets’.
According to the crypto-based Polymarket prediction market, Parolin has a 37 per cent chance of becoming pope while Newsweek’s aggregate of traditional bookmakers also gives him a 37 per cent chance.
Meanwhile, the second-place candidate, the 67-year-old Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, has been given a 32 per cent chance.
ChatGPT says: ‘In conclave terms, a five‑point advantage in the betting market is hardly a landslide – so while Parolin is “most likely,” the margin is narrow.’
Cardinal Parolin is regarded as the likely continuity candidate, having worked closely with Pope Francis.
Pope Francis also appointed 108 of the current 135 cardinal electors, which increases the chances of a candidate close to the former Pope being elected.
Parolin is seen as a moderate, though not as close to the liberal wing as Francis has sometimes appeared to be.
When Ireland voted in 2015 to legalise same-sex marriage, Parolin described it as ‘a defeat for humanity’.
Cardinal Parolin, pictured visiting the body of Pope Francis, worked closely with the late Pope and could be a compromise candidate between the conservative and reformist camps
Cardinal Parolin, pictured meeting US Vice President JD Vance on April 19, also has considerable diplomatic experience which makes him a promising candidate
In recent times, Parolin’s star has fallen a little thanks to his being the architect of the 2018 agreement between the Holy See and China, which some regard as a sell-out to the Chinese Communist Party.
Cardinal Tagle, the former Archbishop of Manila, is also a strong continuity candidate who was very close to Pope Francis and has even been dubbed ‘the Asian Francis’.
In a glowing analysis, ChatGPT explains: ‘His decade in Manila as a pastor made him a household name in Asia, and his wit and compassion shine through in speeches that resonate across cultures.
‘Electing him would mark the first Asian pontiff in history and signal continuity with Francis’s push for a more geographically diverse leadership.’
Other potential candidates include the 76-year-old Peter Turkson, former Bishop of the Cape Coast who would be the first black pope, and the 72-year-old conservative Cardinal Peter Erdo.
However, while the AI might have already picked its favourite contenders, it could be weeks until we find out who the next pope will be.
During the conclave, no cardinal is allowed to communicate with the outside world and anyone even tempted to try will find it tricky.
Last time, in 2013, technicians created a communications blackout. The Sistine Chapel will even be swept for bugs.
ChatGPT selected Cardian Luis Antonia Tagle as the second-choice candidate. If elected, the former Archbishop of Manila would be the first Asian pope
Cardinal Tagle (left) worked closely with Pope Francis (right) and shared many of his liberal views. Tagle has even been dubbed the ‘Asian Francis’
Four rounds of balloting are taken every day until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote.
The result of each ballot is counted aloud and recorded by three cardinals.
The only sign of their progress will be the smoke sent out of the chimney each day.
If no one receives the necessary two-thirds of the vote, the ballots are burned in a stove near the chapel with a mixture of chemicals to produce black smoke.
The process can go to multiple rounds with the same people theoretically getting the same number of votes each time as cardinals wait to see who loses support first.
But slowly, cardinals who voted for someone who only received a very small number of votes are likely to add their vote to one of the stronger candidates in the next round.
Just like the recent film Conclave, starring Ralph Fiennes, factions may be able to make their views known during informal chats between votes.
The longest conclave in history lasted 34 months, from the death of Clement IV in November 1268 until the election of Gregory X on 1 September 1271.
Other leading candidates included Cardinal Turkson. Born in Ghana, Turkson was the bookies’ favourite at one point when Francis was chosen in 2013. He would be the first black pope
Ralph Fiennes in the film Conclave, which with uncanny timing is up for an Oscar as the real thing takes place
But in modern times, none has lasted longer than the five days – and 14 rounds of voting – it took to elect Pius XI in 1922.
Likewise, the conclave to elect the late Pope Francis 12 years ago lasted just two days.
When a cardinal receives the necessary two-thirds vote, the dean of the College of Cardinals asks him if he accepts his election.
If he accepts, he chooses a papal name and is dressed in papal vestments before processing out to the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica.
The ballots of the final round are burned in a special stove, with chemicals producing white smoke to signal to the world the election of a new pope.
