A Category 3 hurricane made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday as the 17th named storm of the season – but its path has stumped forecasters.
While Rafael is anticipated to stay in the Gulf and track westward for at least the next few days, meteorologists have varying data suggesting its direction beyond that.
A significant shift in the storm’s forecast track is decreasing the threat to the US and increasing chances it will head toward Mexico’s Gulf Coast – but a likely path is still unclear.
The National Hurricane Center said there’s ‘above average uncertainty in the future track of Rafael’, KRLD reported.
‘Most of the models show Rafael turning southwestward in response to a narrow ridge building to its northwest,’ the agency said. ‘But the Global Forecast System and Canadian models still suggest a northward turn ahead of a slightly deeper upper trough over the central United States.’
A spaghetti model showed that Rafael has six potential paths to the US, but experts say that none of these are as likely as the storm tracking west toward Mexico
AccuWeather meteorologists, however, said that it’s still ‘too early to give the all-clear on tropical impacts along the Gulf Coast’
Hurricane Rafael left ten million people in the dark as the storm tore through the island, bringing torrential rain and strong winds that reached 105 mph and knocked out the entire country’s power grid.
On Thursday, the storm pulled away from Cuba entered the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane, leaving behind damaged homes, uprooted trees and toppling telephone poles.
When Rafael first formed, it appeared as though it could head straight for the US, with the initial forecast including the Florida Keys.
Heavy rainfall was expected to spread north into Florida and nearby areas of the southeast US during the middle to late part of the week.
A few tornadoes also were expected Wednesday over the Keys and southwestern Florida.
But so far, it appears that Rafael will be confined to the southern Gulf of Mexico in the next several days while slightly weakening in intensity, instead of approaching the US Gulf Coast – making the threat of its landfall in the US slim to none, KRLD reported.
Homes around western Cuba were destroyed after Hurricane Rafael – a Category 3 storm – made landfall in the country on Wednesday
Torrential rain hit Cuba as well as winds that reached up to 105 mph and knocked out the entire country’s power grid
Rafael pulled away from Cuba on Thursday entered the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane, leaving behind damaged homes, uprooted trees and toppling telephone poles
Although there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, the National Hurricane Center says swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across the Gulf of Mexico, likely creating life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Rafael rapidly intensified before hitting Cuba late Wednesday afternoon, making it the ninth storm to rapidly intensify in the Atlantic basin this year alone, CNN reported.
The storm first delivered a devastating blow as a Category 3 hurricane – the first one to hit Cuba since Ian in 2022 and the second hurricane to hit the country in the last two weeks which left at least seven people dead.
Forecasters warned that the hurricane could bring ‘life-threatening’ storm surges, winds and flash floods to western swaths of the island after it knocked out power and dumped rain on the Cayman Islands and Jamaica just a day before it hit Cuba.
Earlier on Wednesday, the Cuban government issued an alert for the incoming storm while crews in Havana worked to fortify buildings and clear scraps from seaside areas in an anticipation for flooding.
On parts of the island, classes and public transportation were suspended and flights were cancelled in and out of Havana and Varadero.
The National Hurricane Center said there’s ‘above average uncertainty in the future track of Rafael’
Thousands of people in the west areas of the island were evacuated.
‘This is a night I don’t want to sleep through, between the battering air and the trees,’ Silvia Pérez, a 72-year-old retiree living in the coastal area of Havana said as she was preparing to flee.
‘I’m scared for my friends and family.’
The Energy and Mines Ministry said on Thursday that it was making progress in restoring power for residents of eastern and central Cuba, but warned that it would take longer in the western part of the island where the Rafael hit the hardest, Aljazeera reported.
The capital, Havana, which is home to two million people, was still without power late on Thursday.
But forecasters are now left stumped over where Hurricane Rafael is heading for next
Schools and businesses were closed, and transport services are only starting to become up and running again.
Jose Ignacio Dimas, a security guard who lives in Havana, came home to find his apartment building, which is in the historic center of the city, had collapsed, Aljazeera reported.
‘The entire front wall of the building fell,’ he said.
But similar to many buildings in the capital, it was aging and lacked regular maintenance.
When Rafael entered the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night, it became the fifth hurricane to roam the Gulf in November since 1966, CNN reported.
