Last December at the winter meetings, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts expressed his confidence in the composition of his roster.
There was “really no big splash,” he claimed, that needed to be made.
Nonetheless, a few days later, the Dodgers gave Edwin Díaz the highest average annual salary ever for a reliever when they signed him to a three-year, $69 million deal. One month after that, they signed Kyle Tucker for four years and a staggering $240 million, a deal that set a record for present-day average annual value.
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The moves for the best closer and player on the market felt superfluous, but at the very least, both players figured to be additive to the Dodgers’ roster and their quest to win a third straight World Series title.
Now, those two massive signings could be their undoing.
Tucker, whose home struggles in particular seem to be getting to him, has been a replacement-level player and is offering little at the plate or in the field. Díaz has been even worse, with an ERA of 11.85 through 16 appearances, and is back on the injured list for the second time this year.
The Dodgers’ elite rotation, star-studded lineup and October pedigree, of course, could make up for their blemishes elsewhere.
But as it stands now, these are the five biggest threats to a Dodgers three-peat:
1. Kyle Tucker’s Disaster Season
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On the road this year, Tucker has an .820 OPS, a respectable tally in line with his career norms.
At Dodger Stadium, however, he has been one of the worst players in baseball. Tucker has the lowest home OPS (.558) among all qualified hitters in the sport.
At some point during the Dodgers’ last homestand, where Tucker went 0-for-19, Roberts could tell the frustration was getting to his right fielder. He could see from Tucker’s reactions to at-bats.
It got to the point where Roberts gave Tucker a Saturday off against NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski to try to clear his head. It did not appear to work. The next day, Tucker returned to the lineup and went 0-for-3, dropped a fly ball at the wall and leisurely jogged over to retrieve it in front of a booing home crowd.
One game later, he dropped another fly ball. He is not making up for his struggles at the plate with sharp defense or good baserunning, and is in fact also having the worst defensive season of his career by outs above average. The poor play looks worse when the effort also appears unenthusiastic, nonchalant or apathetic, all criticisms of Tucker at past stops.
This year, however, is unlike any before it. Over the past seven seasons, Tucker never had an OPS under .800. This year, it is under .700. For the first time since his rookie year as a 21-year-old, he is a below-league-average hitter.
While the struggles are much more evident at home, he’s also chasing more overall than he had in any of his last three seasons, whiffing more than he had in any of his last five seasons and struggling to access his pull-side power. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are the lowest of his career, and his bat speed has slowed compared to recent years.
“I don’t know the answer,” Roberts said. “We are digging.”
2. An Aging, Injured (And Maybe Fatigued) Roster
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One of the reasons the Dodgers added Tucker, 29, was to inject some youth into the oldest position player group in the sport.
Tucker and All-Star center fielder Andy Pages are the only starting position players on the team under the age of 30, and that age and declining athleticism might finally be showing.
One example?
The Dodgers rank 23rd in sprint speed and 28th in stolen bases and have grounded into the most double plays in the sport. The only player with a bolt — defined by Statcast as any run in which a player’s sprint speed is at least 30 feet per second — is Hernández. He has one on the season, but he is also enduring the worst offensive year of his career.
Mookie Betts is also having the worst offensive season of his career, though he has shown signs of life over the last two weeks.
“He’s crucial,” Roberts said of Betts. “He’s going to be in the middle of things. He’s got the experience, the talent. He’s an emotional guy, and I say that in the sense of when he’s going well, guys feed off that energy. And when he’s not, you’re sort of trying to find it in him and get it in him.”
Freddie Freeman is having another terrific year, but his slugging numbers are way down in the second half. Will Smith hasn’t played since June due to a neck issue and was having his worst offensive season prior to being sidelined. His expected return before season’s end will be crucial, especially with backup catcher Dalton Rushing also sidelined.
Some of the Dodgers’ most trusted bullpen arms are also hurt or regressing, perhaps wearing down after two straight trips to the World Series. In addition, the Dodgers’ defense — a surprising hallmark of the club in the first half — has declined considerably since the break.
3. Edwin Díaz And The Scuffling Bullpen
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A year ago, the Dodgers signed reliever Tanner Scott for four years and $72 million and watched him struggle enough that he ultimately did not appear in a playoff game.
To remedy their ninth-inning concern, they signed Diaz this offseason to be their shutdown closer.
It has, again, not gone to plan.
Nine months later, they’re right back where they started. Díaz missed three months after undergoing surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He returned in late July and proceeded to allow runs in six of nine appearances before going back on the IL, this time with neck inflammation. He allowed at least one baserunner in all but one of those nine outings.
Opponents are hitting .441 against his four-seamer and .323 against his slider. His strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. His walk rate is the highest of his career. In addition, his arm slot continues to drop, perhaps a subconscious reaction to his physical ailments. Díaz was working to remedy that issue as well as his posture on the mound in an effort to get less rotational and more direct to home plate when he allowed another three runs Monday in Colorado.
The Dodgers remain hopeful they can get him right before October, but time is running short. And he’s not the only reason the Dodgers’ bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA since the start of July. Coincidentally, Scott — who is 18-for-20 in save opportunities this year — has emerged as one of the Dodgers’ only reliable high-leverage options of late.
Blake Treinen and Will Klein are on the IL. Alex Vesia has an ERA over 6.00 in August, while hard-throwing Edgardo Henriquez has an ERA over 6.00 over his last 12 appearances. Evan Phillips has an ERA over 5.00 since returning from Tommy John surgery.
A particularly grueling stretch of games — Thursday is just the Dodgers’ second off day this month — plus a shorter bullpen with Shohei Ohtani no longer pitching in the Dodgers’ six-man rotation haven’t helped matters, either. The Dodgers will likely shift some of their starters to the bullpen in October again, but their relief pitching still looks like one of their top concerns.
4. They Haven’t Looked Great In Nearly Two Months
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Sandwiched between sweeps of the last-place Royals and the last-place Rockies, the Dodgers lost three of four games to the first-place Brewers last week.
The Dodgers have a .500 record against teams that are .500 or better (33-33) and have a .500 record overall since the start of July (21-21). Over that time, their offense ranks 18th in OPS and they’ve been swept by the Diamondbacks, Red Sox and Cubs.
Asked if he’s concerned that this is just who the Dodgers are now, Roberts pushed back.
“I don’t think that’s who we are,” Roberts said. “I think we’ve done it long enough, individually, collectively. But I do think that just saying you’re going to come out of it is not the right way to look at it.”
It’s worth pointing out that last year’s world champion Dodgers went 10-14 in July and 25-27 combined in July and August (and the 2024 champion Dodgers went 11-13 in July), so they can clearly work their way out of a second-half funk.
Still, prior to sweeping the Rockies this week in Colorado, Roberts expressed concerns about the consistency of the offense as a whole, the plan of attack at the plate and the lack of urgency on a pitch-to-pitch basis.
“This has been four, five, six weeks of below-average production from our offense,” Roberts said during the home series loss to the Brewers. “Our pedigree, what we typically do, is control the zone, grind at-bats, create stress. We’re not doing that.”
5. The National League Is Better And Deeper This Year
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This might be a good time for a reminder about the randomness of postseason baseball.
In 2024, the Dodgers needed to win two straight elimination games, including a bullpen game, to get past San Diego in the NLDS. In 2025, the Blue Jays came two outs — and one foot — away from winning the World Series.
Anything can happen in October.
But even beyond the postseason’s unpredictability, the road ahead is more treacherous. The Dodgers got to face the 83-79 Reds in last year’s wild-card series after the Mets’ late-season collapse. That two-game sweep felt more like an exhibition.
This year, as the NL West rival Padres and Diamondbacks vie for the final playoff spot, every potential NL playoff matchup offers danger. That’s one reason a first-round bye is so important this year and why the Dodgers were frustrated last Sunday about losing the series and, in conjunction, the season series to the Brewers.
They’d still have a bye if the season ended today, but the Braves will be pushing the Brewers and Dodgers for one of the top two NL seeds until the end.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.
