It almost isn’t fair that we only get five games in these National League Division Series. I mentioned the same about the Wild Card round, specifically with the Braves vs. Phillies series, but the two games between the Brewers and Padres have been fantastic. The only bad thing about tonight’s game is that the Brewers are up 2-0, and this could be the last game between the two squads.
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The Milwaukee Brewers are the best team in baseball, and they’ve found a way to carry that success into the postseason. They’ve repeatedly been one of the best teams for years, but winning in the postseason has escaped them. At least through two games, this season has felt a little different. They seem to be more resilient, more locked in, and their pitching has been great. I know it is only two games, but it is encouraging for the Brewers and their fans to be in this position.
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Christian Yelich #22 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates his second solo home run of the game during the sixth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 15, 2025 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Jason Mowry/Getty Images)
I’m not 100% sure they are setting themselves up for the best opportunity tonight. Milwaukee is leading in the series and can always send Jacob Misiorowski on full rest when needed. However, Dustin May is starting today, and he is their third starter. In the regular season, he went 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in his time with the Brewers and Cardinals. He had bad splits this year, posting a 5.88 ERA on the road. He did face the Padres twice this season, going 15 innings and allowing just two earned runs on four hits. That includes a home start when he was with the Cardinals and threw a complete-game, one-hit shutout.
The San Diego Padres have to be incredibly frustrated by the end results of their two games in Milwaukee. In the first game, they jumped out to a lead and chased the Brewers’ best pitcher after just four innings. Unfortunately for them, the game was tied before he left. Then they gave up a homer in the seventh that broke the tie. In the top of the ninth, Ty France hit a bomb that hit the roof and was then caught for an out. It is an odd rule, but it is the rule.
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San Diego Padres’ Ty France watches his ball hit a cable near the roof of American Family Field during the ninth inning of Game 1 of a National League Division Series on Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
Game 2 was one the Padres were in position to win until their closer, Mason Miller, walked three hitters. He then had the Brewers on the ropes, but gave up a two-run single and the game went to the Brewers. Tonight, the Padres are asking Nick Pivetta to keep them alive. Pivetta was just 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP for the year. He didn’t go overly deep into his postseason start against the Cubs, throwing 3.1 innings and allowing three hits, two walks, and one run. Brewers hitters have rocked him in the past, going 21-for-69 against Pivetta.
San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. runs home after hitting a solo home run against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning of Game 1 of the Wild Card round of the 2026 MLB playoffs at Petco Park in San Diego, Calif., on Sept. 29, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)
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Christian Yelich is a guy I’m going to back tonight for a player prop. He is 7-for-18 against Pivetta in his career with four extra-base hits. I’ll take him for 2+ total bases. For the game, I’m also going to back the over seven runs and the Padres. I think Pivetta could struggle and allow a couple of runs, but I have even less confidence in May on the road. San Diego at home has gone 53-30, including the playoffs. Give me the Padres, the over, and Yelich to get 2+ total bases.
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