Despite a number of fascinating storylines, much of the discussion during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season was dominated by upcoming labor negotiations with the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement in December.
The league office, essentially run by the 30 current owners, started an advertising and promotional campaign designed to inflame tensions and increase support for its proposed salary cap. As early as June, the league’s official account made several posts telling fans how awful baseball is, while claiming that many fanbases have no “hope” of winning a World Series because of payroll disparities.
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“The biggest issue baseball fans want solved to strengthen the game is fixing the payroll disparity that leaves too many fans without hope of their team competing for a World Series title,” the first post said. “Every other major U.S. sport has tackled this problem, and every year more small market teams in those leagues have a chance to win. The salary cap and floor proposal levels the playing field, allowing us greater flexibility to address longstanding player priorities while sharing baseball revenue with the players 50/50.”
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Junior Caminero #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates after hitting a walk-off home run in the ninth inning to defeat the Athletics 2-1 at Tropicana Field on Sept. 15, 2026, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (Getty Images)
This was, of course, misleading; many teams get ancillary income that would not be included in the “50/50” split. And if the proposed floor would be achievable for the small market teams in 2027, it raises the question of why it wasn’t in 2026. Even increased revenue sharing wouldn’t come close to bridging the gap for most small market teams.
Regardless though, that “hope” section, again posted in June, has taken a major, major blow by the results in the postseason. Because it turns out that while spending helps, it doesn’t guarantee results.
With the Dodgers, Brewers, and Tampa Bay Rays advancing to their respective league championship series on Wednesday, three of the four spots in the penultimate postseason round have been determined. The last spot will go to one of the Chicago White Sox or Cleveland Guardians. Five teams, out of 30, are left standing. Here’s where they rank in pre-luxury tax player payroll in 2026, per Cot’s Contracts:
- No. 2 – Los Angeles Dodgers
- No. 19 – Milwaukee Brewers
- No. 24 – Chicago White Sox
- No. 28 – Tampa Bay Rays
- No. 30 – Cleveland Guardians
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The Dodgers are favorites to win the World Series, but as we’ve seen from years of experience, the favored team doesn’t always win. And the Brewers will not be able to line up Jacob Misiorowski for two starts in the NLCS, including in Game 1 at American Family Field. Even if they do make it through the NLCS and the World Series, does the league really believe the message of “you have no hope” will resonate when four of the final five teams are in the bottom 11 in player payroll? Including the literal cheapest team in the sport, and coming off a series in which the No. 28 payroll team dominated the big spending Yankees in an easy 3-0 sweep?
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Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Kayla Wolf)
These outcomes raise another key point; did Rays or White Sox fans realistically enter the season with “hope” of winning a World Series? Of course not. Chicago’s just two seasons removed from one of the worst years in baseball history. The Rays did little this offseason to give fans reason for optimism. Yet here they are, favorites to advance through the American League for the second time in the past six years.
Milwaukee fans might have lost hope when the front office traded Freddy Peralta to the Mets in the offseason…only for the Brewers to have an even better record in 2026, the best win-loss and run differential in the sport. With the 19th highest payroll.
Point being, “hope” doesn’t always relate to success. Mets fans started 2026 with “hope” after getting Peralta, Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette and Devin Williams. How’d that go? Yankees fans had hope with the exciting debut of Cam Schlittler in 2025, bringing back Cody Bellinger, and top prospects like Spencer Jones and George Lombard Jr., reaching the big leagues. Their reward? A sweep from the Rays.
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Going back as far as 2010, it’s clear that money helps, but competent front offices and smart money wins. Here are the most LCS appearances by organization starting that season
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 8
- Houston Astros – 7
- New York Yankees – 6
- St. Louis Cardinals – 4
- Milwaukee Brewers – 4
- Boston Red Sox – 3
- Detroit Tigers – 3
- Texas Rangers – 3
- San Francisco Giants – 3
- Chicago Cubs – 3
- Toronto Blue Jays – 3
- Philadelphia Phillies – 3
- Tampa Bay Rays – 2
- Atlanta Braves – 2
- Cleveland Guardians/Indians – 2
- Kansas City Royals – 2
- New York Mets – 2
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1
- Baltimore Orioles – 1
- San Diego Padres – 1
- Seattle Mariners – 1
- Washington Nationals – 1
First, 22 of the 30 teams have reached the LCS since 2010, and if the White Sox advance with their 2-1 series lead, that’ll grow to 23 of 30. Most small market teams have reached the LCS, many multiple times. Yes, the Dodgers have dominated, but the Mets have the same number of LCS appearances as Cleveland, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. The Tigers have made it three times, as many as the Cubs or Red Sox. Should Cleveland advance, they’d join the list of teams with three appearances. Meanwhile, the huge market Los Angeles Angels haven’t even reached the playoffs in the past decade.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani walks to first base after being hit by a pitch during the second inning of a game against the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/William Liang)
Again, money absolutely matters. It clearly helps, the Dodgers are proof of that. But there are no guarantees in baseball, and LA’s dominance is a testament to using their resources wisely. Obviously though, there’s plenty of reason for hope for the vast majority of organizations, despite what the league’s propaganda would lead you to believe.
