I love looking back at how expectations and years start, and then where they end up. There are four teams remaining in the American League right now, and I’d argue two of them were expected and the other two have defied the odds. Both were up 2-0 in their series coming into today. Now the Yankees face the Rays with their hopes of continuing the season on the line.
The Tampa Bay Rays have won both of the first games of the series, and both were very different games. In the first game, Drew Rasmussen was a wizard on the mound and flustered the Yankees hitters. Then in Game 2, the fault really fell on the Yankees fielders as they played sloppy defense. Combine terrible defense from New York with solid pitching from Tampa, and they are up 2-0.
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Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates with teammates after hitting a walk-off home run in the ninth inning to defeat the Athletics 2-1 at Tropicana Field on Sept. 15, 2026, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (Getty Images)
Looking to shut the door on the Yankees season is Nick Martinez. For the year, Martinez went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. His wins, ERA, and WHIP are all top 14 or better in the majors. On the road, his ERA actually improves to 2.38. He faced the Yankees in three games this season and allowed just four earned runs over 16.2 innings.
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The New York Yankees have their backs against the wall, but they are returning to New York for these next two games (if they can win tonight). The Yankees are 12 games over .500 at home this season, and they dominated in both of the Wild Card games against the Red Sox. The problem may be that they have been a bit home run reliant to score, and it seems to be exposed in this series.
Max Fried of the New York Yankees pitches against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 30, 2026, in New York. (New York Yankees/Getty Images)
In an effort to extend the series, and hopefully their season, the Yankees are sending out Max Fried to the mound. He already made one postseason start, and he allowed just three hits and one walk in six innings. The lone run that he allowed was a solo shot. There is some reason for concern as the Yankees’ lefty has a higher home ERA, and he has struggled against the Rays. In two starts this season, he has allowed seven earned runs over 14.2 innings, and it wasn’t just one bad start.
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Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays grounds out to the pitcher during the first inning of the MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pa., on July 14, 2026. (Al Bello/Getty Images)
I’m not really sure why the Rays should be faded here.
They have a pitcher that can likely stack up with Fried. Outside of this strong start against the Red Sox, Fried has also not been very good in the postseason. The Yankees have been good at home, and the Rays haven’t been good outside of Tampa, but they have all the momentum. I’m taking the Rays here at plus money.
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