Texas opens season against Texas State as Arch Manning faces a make-or-break college football year

We officially have the first full weekend of college football. From now until the end of the year, we get to watch football essentially all day Saturday and Sunday.

Sure, there will be some breaks in there, and some days that won’t have quite as much on the gridiron. Still, I’m pumped to have it back and have more options for sports betting. I mentioned this in another article, but this is not a great week of games, as most are lopsided games.

We will likely have one here between Texas State and Texas, but there is still reason for intrigue.

STEVE SARKISIAN GIVES EMBARRASSING EXPLANATION FOR TEXAS’ COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF LOSS: ‘WE WERE TIRED’

Money is a major factor in college sports, but with college football being the king of them, there is money galore. I have to imagine that one of the reasons that Texas State agreed to this game is that the school was paid a lot of money to come play Texas.

Texas State went 7-6 last year, so it wasn’t like they were awful. However, the best team they played last year was probably Arizona State. They played Rice in a bowl game, so perhaps that was their toughest game.

Brad Jackson is back under center for Texas State, so you have to imagine the team will at least know the offense well enough to run coherent plays. Last season he was pretty good. He completed 71% of passes, had 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while racking up 3,224 yards. Greg Burrell, who was their secondary running back last year, steps in as the primary back this year. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year, but had just 3 touchdowns.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs as he looks to throw against Vanderbilt during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Austin, Texas, on Nov. 1, 2025. (Eric Gay/AP Photo)

ARCH MANNING ISN’T BACKING DOWN FROM EXPECTATIONS, AND NEITHER IS STEVE SARKISIAN, AS CFP SEMIS AREN’T ENOUGH

In my opinion, this is a make-or-break season for Texas. I’m not saying their coach will be fired, or anything like that. However, I also wouldn’t rule that possibility out.

The bigger thing to me is that they need to figure out what is going on with their quarterback, Arch Manning.

Coming out of high school, he was one of the highest-regarded prospects potentially ever. In his first season as the primary QB, he was fairly average. He completed just 61.4% of passes, but had 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions to go along with 3,163 yards.

It was a tale of two locations for Manning. At home, he was very good, completing 65% of passes and 19 of his 26 touchdown passes. He only had two of his seven interceptions at home as well. They missed the playoffs despite coming into the season as the top-ranked team in football. Manning is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. I just don’t see it happening if he doesn’t take a major step forward.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks on from the field before their game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. (John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports)

This is a much easier way to start the year than what Texas had last year, starting on the road against Ohio State (they face them again, but at home next week). This year, Texas should destroy their opponent to start the season. However, Texas only had two wins last year by more than 21 points. They played a tough schedule, but they also played a lot of close games. There is no lack of talent here, but I don’t see this team scoring a ton of points either. I think Manning will play maybe half the game unless he looks awful, and if he looks awful, they won’t have many points. Give me the under 59.5.

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