Timberwolves vs. Heat preview: Why the under 238.5 could be the play in tonight’s matchup

The NBA returned to action yesterday, and I had two plays for us, and we started perfectly with wins in both games. It won’t always be a rosy outlook, but it was nice to get off to a good start in the NBA. We had the appetizer of three great games yesterday, and today we have 11 different matchups to choose from. The first one I have circled is on ESPN as the Timberwolves take on the Heat.

The Minnesota Timberwolves should probably be given a little bit of credit for all of the tinkering they’ve done with their roster over the years. We see a lot of teams build a roster and then leave it alone for a few years to see if it will work out. The Timberwolves have given their team a chance, and then they adjust based on the results of the squad. For example, they’ve traded for Rudy Gobert, then they traded away Karl-Anthony Towns when the pairing didn’t work. They realized they needed a point guard, and they traded for LaMelo Ball in the offseason.

The problem with the trade is that they got rid of one of their best players, Naz Reid, in the deal. He will be missed off the bench and in key moments. However, Ball should make the offense look a little more dynamic. Ball has plenty of flaws. He has terrible shot selection, seems to be a complete disaster on defense in isolation situations, and he is injury-prone. There is no denying his talent, though. When his shot is falling, he is elite. He is great in transition, and he will now be a second option to Anthony Edwards, who seems to already really like playing with him.

LAMELO BALL TRADED TO TIMBERWOLVES TO TEAM UP WITH FELLOW TOP PICK ANTHONY EDWARDS IN BLOCKBUSTER DEAL: REPORT

The Miami Heat come into this game with a new look as well. They still have some key mainstays like Erik Spoelstra as their coach. I’ve removed any doubt about his abilities. He seems to find a way to get things to work regardless of who he has on the roster. That doesn’t mean they always win, but he certainly gets the most out of his team. Pat Riley is also willing to shake things up as he tries to get the team back to championship contention.

Miami Heat forward Giannis Antetokounmpo takes a moment during a break in the game against the Brooklyn Nets in the second half at Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., on Oct. 14, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

CLICK HERE FOR MORE OUTKICK SPORTS COVERAGE

THE CRAIG CARTON SHOW–UNFILTERED, UNAPOLOGETIC AND UNMISSABLE. DOWNLOAD HIS DAILY PODCAST NOW!

There is no doubt they are close again because they added one of the best players in basketball in the offseason with Giannis Antetokounmpo coming to the team. Giannis will now be the offensive force for the team. If you’re going to question anything about the roster, the main question should be: where will the shooting come from? No one on the roster, outside of Klay Thompson, is a great 3-point shooter, and he is on the wrong side of his career to be relied on. Probably the same with Tim Hardaway Jr.

Minnesota Timberwolves point guard LaMelo Ball dribbles up court during the first quarter against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Oct. 12, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

The Heat might have the best defensive five in basketball. Davion Mitchell is an elite defender, even if he doesn’t get much recognition for it. Thompson and Wiggins have both likely lost a step, but both are still good defenders. Giannis and Bam are potential Defensive Player of the Year candidates. It is a bit hard to take the under in this game because the Timberwolves could absolutely be an offensive force, and no one really will stop Giannis on their team, but I think the Heat defense, plus the lack of 3-point shooting from Miami, give the under 238.5 a good shot.

SIGN UP FOR THE DAILY OUTKICK NEWSLETTER

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024